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The Earnings360 Team
Further Reading from MarketBeat Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and in some cases the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded as well. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter-holiday season (November–December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of about 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season sales. Imagine a bull market so powerful, every single investor became a millionaire. Not by finding the next NVIDIA or Bitcoin, but by owning a simple index fund.
It sounds impossible. Yet it happened – just a short time ago. Now a legendary figure says: "Brace yourselves. It's about to happen here, in America. But fair warning – it could be the worst thing that ever happens to you."
This story has received little coverage in the press. But if history repeats, it could bump tens of millions of Americans into a 7-figure net worth practically overnight. Click here for the full story. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut Amazon is the undisputed leader in U.S. online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains massive. Amazon's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — and include discounts across all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024 the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also claims the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's vast product selection and ability to undercut rivals on price are driven largely by its logistics and fulfillment advantages. The company is even preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few areas where brick-and-mortar stores have held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that combines in-store and online shopping. This approach has supported strong results across the U.S. and international markets, helping produce some of its best recent earnings. Walmart has also enticed some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its marketplace a growing driver of e-commerce sales. Its extensive fulfillment network allows Walmart to price competitively and manage inventory strategically for both in-store and online channels. The company also benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers. Target: The Challenger Target, while a household name, is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — a tighter third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some rivals. That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for offering good value on quality items across categories. Its store-pickup program, where customers buy online and pick up in store, gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains popular. Target has faced headwinds recently, including a widespread boycott after rolling back its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity to make a comeback — or to fall further behind competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Turning to holiday revenue guidance, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had published holiday revenue guidance as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter were $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not provide an identical online-sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Walmart's omnichannel reach, large customer base and competitive pricing make it the likeliest front-runner to dominate Black Friday this year. Investors looking to benefit from that strength may consider buying shares ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect Black Friday performance. That said, when considering the broader retail landscape, Amazon could still emerge as the overall leader. Its ability to offer a wider range of products at lower prices, plus the tailwinds from AWS and its advertising business, give Amazon significant advantages. Outside the U.S., Black Friday is less dominant, but the broader holiday season matters everywhere — and Amazon's massive international footprint is another edge as retailers compete for holiday dollars.
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