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Today's Featured News The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are currently favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its recent results and rising share price. Macroeconomic headwinds have shifted consumer habits and pressured many major retailers, but they have created a tailwind for off-price operators like The TJX Companies, allowing the firm to offer compelling value to still-resilient consumers. Porter Stansberry has just revealed what he calls the most important investing breakthrough of his career — a simple four-pillar portfolio approach designed to reduce risk, cut volatility, and still outperform the market without constant trading or reacting to headlines. In a new episode of the Porter & Co. Black Label Podcast, he explains how this upgraded version of the "Permanent Portfolio" has already outpaced both the S&P 500 and the classic model pioneered by his mentor Harry Browne. Watch Episode 23 of the Black Label Podcast here The takeaway: industry-leading Q3 growth, outperformance and raised full-year guidance—despite likely conservative Q4 guidance—support the view that the uptrend in TJX shares should continue.  TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year and about 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, broad strength across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% year-over-year, followed by a 6% gain in the core Marmaxx divisions, 5% at HomeGoods, and 3% internationally. All segments posted positive growth, which supported margin expansion. Margin performance was notable: a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, coupled with operating leverage, produced meaningful earnings upside. GAAP EPS rose about 12% year-over-year, aided by share repurchases that reduced the weighted-average share count by roughly 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below Street expectations. The shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not erase the strong year-to-date performance. The company raised full-year guidance, now targeting roughly 4% comparable-store growth and a low-end earnings figure of $4.63—about $0.05 above consensus. Given TJX's typically conservative guidance, it is reasonable to expect outperformance when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company returns cash through dividends and aggressive share buybacks, steadily shrinking the share count. The dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500, but the payout is secure and continues to grow. With a payout ratio below 40%, further annual increases are likely for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its dividend for nearly 30 years and appears positioned to sustain robust compound growth in its distribution for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and instead reinforces the case for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets driven by increases in cash and inventory, modestly higher liabilities, and a reduction in debt. The net result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholder equity and persistently low leverage—the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs Analyst sentiment aligns with the fundamental and technical outlook: coverage and sentiment have firmed, 25 analysts carry Buy ratings, and price targets have trended upward. While the consensus views the stock as fairly valued after Q3, the trend favors the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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