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Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss Drugs
Submitted by Jordan Chussler. First Published: 12/16/2025.
Key Takeaways
- The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays.
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24%, and 25%, respectively, over the same period.
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And despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a $10 billion deal, the stock has only mustered a 0.23% gain since then.
The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is once again seeking to expand its role in the weight-loss drug market, with management and shareholders hoping that move can help recover revenue lost as demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines waned.
Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Enormous Deal With YaoPharma
On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill currently in early-stage development. The drug works similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO).
Of course, news of a yet-to-be-approved pill may not move the stock in the short term, but it does reflect the company's commitment and momentum in the obesity-treatment market.
The agreement includes an upfront payment of $150 million to YaoPharma's parent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap.
Additionally, Pfizer could pay YaoPharma up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if the drug advances, as well as royalties on sales if it gains approval.
Those milestone payments are contingent on YaoPharma successfully navigating the weight-loss pill through Phase 1 trials, with Pfizer taking control of later-stage development.
Pfizer also plans to conduct combination studies — currently in mid-stage development — using the Chinese firm's pill together with its own GIP receptor–targeting therapy, a strategy Eli Lilly has adopted with Zepbound (combined with Mounjaro) to target both GLP-1 and GIP.
Pfizer Is Positioning Itself for the Future of the Weight-Loss Drug Market
The deal highlights how aggressively Pfizer's executive team is pursuing a more prominent, long-term position in the GLP-1 and broader obesity-treatment market.
Pfizer's leadership has shown a willingness to invest roughly $10.1 billion over the past month as it seeks to capture a share of this rapidly growing industry.
Forecasts from market analysis firm Grand View Research suggest the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, rising from under $14 billion at the start of this year to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030.
Grand View Research found that North America accounts for the largest revenue share, with more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While other obesity interventions exist — including lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery — GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option among many physicians and patients.
Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend
Shareholders are hoping Pfizer's foray into the weight-loss market pays off after the stock has punished long-term investors with a loss of more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline stems from the drop in COVID-vaccine sales, as revenue growth swung from a more-than-95% increase at the end of 2021 to a decline of over 41% by the end of 2023.
Last year, Pfizer rebounded modestly, recording nearly a 7% increase in revenue. At the same time, the stock's dividend has softened some investor concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65% — $1.72 per share annually. That payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, though its payout ratio of roughly 100% has raised some eyebrows.
For investors focused on income and willing to take a bullish view on the near- and mid-term prospects for prescription weight-loss drugs, Pfizer can continue to provide yield while offering speculative exposure to the GLP-1 market.
Growth-focused investors, however, might be less patient after another year of lackluster performance. Analysts' average 12-month price target implies roughly 10% upside from the current share price and carries a consensus Hold rating.
Meanwhile, short interest has been steadily rising as the stock attracts more bears. About $3.58 billion of the float is currently shorted — roughly 84% higher than at the end of January 2025.
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