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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Article Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, so too do retail sales. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will generate more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time — an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains an essential driver of holiday-season spending. The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't see in America for more than a century. For the full story, click here. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud services, advertising and other businesses in recent years, its retail operations remain substantial. The company's Black Friday deals last nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — and span all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, Amazon hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date, and it consistently posts what some sources call the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer — a distinction it has largely maintained for nearly a decade. Much of this competitive edge comes from its scale and logistics network. The company is also preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few areas where brick-and-mortar stores have retained an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Once a purely traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully evolved into a true omnichannel operator, blending in-store experiences with a growing online business. That strategy has helped drive some of the company's strongest earnings in recent quarters. Walmart has even persuaded some third-party sellers to join its marketplace, making e-commerce an increasingly important growth engine. Its extensive fulfillment network lets Walmart price competitively and manage inventory effectively across channels, while a loyal customer base helps sustain traffic and sales during the holiday period. Target: The Challenger Although well-known, Target is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — including a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands — positioning itself as a destination for good value on quality items across categories. Target's store pickup program — where customers order online and collect items in-store — became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains an important part of its omnichannel mix. Target has faced headwinds lately, including a consumer backlash after it reduced elements of its DEI program. The Black Friday season could be an opportunity to regain momentum or risk falling further behind. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, versus gains of 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue expectations, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has provided public holiday-revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, roughly 18% of total revenue. Target doesn't provide the same online-sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its broad omnichannel strategy, strong customer base and competitive pricing, Walmart appears well-positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors who want exposure to that performance may find an opportunity to buy shares before Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will cover the Black Friday selling period. That said, looking at the broader retail landscape, Amazon could still emerge as the overall leader. It is uniquely positioned to offer a wider slate of lower-priced products, and benefits from additional tailwinds from AWS and its advertising business. Finally, while Black Friday is most prominent in the United States, the broader holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's international footprint gives it another advantage heading into the holidays.
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