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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Content 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it has been a solid year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—but recession risks are not priced in. New Hampshire just launched a Strategic Crypto Reserve — and James Altucher says it's the first sign that "Trump's Great Gain" has officially begun.
Altucher believes select cryptos could turn $900 into $108,000 over the next 12 months — and he's laying out the full gameplan in a new presentation. See Altucher's Trump crypto prediction here Even with broad gains, some skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but the market is clearly being lifted by a narrow group of names, mostly tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Evidence in credit defaults, rising delinquent auto loans, and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggests this problem is worsening. The labor market had been the economy's strongest pillar, but even that is beginning to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimated probability of a recession from 60% to 40%, citing the recent de-escalation of trade tensions. That still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. This historically low breadth adds to investors' concerns. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs in hopes of striking it rich. Today's froth is largely coming from mega-cap stocks with healthy balance sheets. Still, many investors worry these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three stocks (and one ETF) that offer asymmetric return potential in an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is part of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, meaning the company has increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for income-oriented investors. The 2.8% dividend yield could look even more attractive if rates fall. Additionally, the $171.53 price target implies about 17% upside for 2025. It's unclear how P&G's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect the company's earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol-related controversy subsides, we could see a small earnings-per-share (EPS) dilution in the first year, followed by EPS accretion as cost synergies materialize. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company on this list is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Haida Therapeutics is one example of that strategy in action. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). This addition materially strengthens JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more appealing to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a solid choice, but with potential AI-fueled overexuberance, it could be time to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble intensify, we would likely see a rotation into the Dow 30's more diversified, blue-chip names—making DIA a reasonable asymmetric play to capture that shift. As of this writing, DIA has about 37% institutional ownership. Still, it has seen more buying than selling in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions are starting to build a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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