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For Your Education and Enjoyment Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and in some cases the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded as well. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, up roughly 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024. Despite headwinds from weakening consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season spending. A major shift is coming to the gold market — the world's largest gold buyer is preparing to launch a new way for everyday Americans to invest in gold with a click, and when it goes live in 2026 it could unleash a wave of demand unlike anything we've seen. Garrett Goggin believes one $1.60 gold stock is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of this surge — a move where even a small price jump could mean a meaningful gain — along with several other miners set to ride the same trend. Click here to see the $1.60 gold stock and Garrett's full list of recommendations Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains enormous. The company's Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and span all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. The firm is even preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas where brick-and-mortar stores have held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that blends in-store shopping with online retail. This approach has served the company well in the U.S. and abroad, helping produce some of its best earnings reports in recent quarters. Walmart has even attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon's platform, making its e-commerce marketplace an important growth driver. Its robust fulfillment network also lets Walmart price competitively and manage inventory for both in-store and online channels. Coupled with a loyal customer base, that network gives the company a significant advantage during the holiday season. Target: The Challenger Target, though a household name, is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—including a narrow third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some rivals. That focus has helped Target earn a reputation for quality value across multiple categories. Its store pickup program, where customers buy online and collect in person, became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target faced challenges in recent quarters, including a public backlash when it scaled back parts of its DEI program. The Black Friday sales period could be a chance to rebound or, alternatively, to fall further behind larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart appears to have the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had published comparable holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales in the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue. Target doesn't provide the same breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its wide omnichannel footprint, loyal customer base and competitive pricing, Walmart is well positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on that strength may see an opportunity to buy shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect performance during the Black Friday period. That said, Amazon remains a formidable competitor across the broader retail landscape. Its ability to offer a wider range of products at often lower prices, combined with the tailwinds from AWS, advertising and other services, gives it a strong chance to lead overall holiday sales. Finally, while Black Friday is primarily a U.S. phenomenon, the broader holiday season matters globally—and Amazon's international reach provides an additional advantage. Target can still win in curated categories, but it faces an uphill battle to regain broader market share against these larger omnichannel competitors.
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