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The Earnings360 Team
Just For You The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock price. The macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and affected results for major retailers have created a favorable buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, enabling it to offer attractive values to still-resilient consumers. While everyone's making predictions about what might happen in 2026, we've identified 5 stocks with catalysts that are already locked and loaded.
These aren't hopes or projections. These are scheduled events, signed contracts, and approved projects that will play out over the next 12 months.
The difference between 100% gains and missing out completely? Positioning before 2026 arrives. Click here to get your free copy of this report The takeaway is that industry-leading Q3 growth, combined with outperformance and slightly cautious Q4 guidance, suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% rise in Home Goods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments contributed to net growth and margin strength. Margin performance was also strong. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage produced a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, complemented by operating improvements that drove leveraged earnings gains. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the share count by about 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided guidance for Q4 that was slightly below expectations. However, the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the solid year-to-date performance. Full-year guidance was raised: the company now expects comp store growth of 4% and earnings of $4.63 at the low end—more than a nickel above consensus estimates. Given TJX's typically conservative guidance, actual results could again beat expectations when Q4 results are released in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of the TJX stock price. The company pays a modest but reliable dividend and repurchases shares aggressively, steadily reducing the outstanding share count. The payout ratio remains low—below 40%—so annual dividend increases are likely to continue. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, the company has increased its distribution annually for nearly 30 years and appears positioned to sustain double-digit dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet presents no red flags for investors and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included increases in current and total assets—driven by higher cash and inventories—offset by modest gains in liabilities and a reduction in debt. The net result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholders' equity, accompanied by persistently low leverage. The company is net cash, with long-term debt roughly 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook. They include increased coverage, firmer sentiment, a Buy rating from 25 analysts, and an upward trend in price targets. Consensus assumes the stock is fairly valued after the Q3 release, but the trend points to the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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