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The Earnings360 Team
Just For You The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail backdrop is favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, a fact reflected in both its latest results and its stock price. The macroeconomic headwinds that have changed consumer habits and pressured results at many major retailers have created a tailwind for off-price operators like TJX, allowing the company to offer strong value to still-resilient shoppers. Get a 59% Dividend from Bitcoin—No Crypto Required!
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TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Results were driven by a 5% systemwide comp, strength across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% gain in the core Marmaxx divisions, 5% at Home Goods, and a 3% increase internationally. All segments posted healthier net growth, which contributed to margin strength. Margin performance was notable. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage drove a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, and operating efficiencies further leveraged earnings. GAAP EPS rose 12%, including the benefit from share repurchases that reduced the weighted-average share count by about 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below expectations. The shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the strong results year to date. The company raised full-year guidance, now forecasting comp store growth around 4% and earnings of $4.63 at the low end — more than a nickel above consensus. Given the company's conservative guidance posture historically, it's reasonable to expect the results will again outperform when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company both pays a dividend and repurchases shares, steadily reducing its share count each year. The dividend is modest relative to the S&P 500 but appears secure and is growing. The payout ratio is below 40%, supporting the likelihood of continued annual increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has increased its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and can likely sustain double-digit dividend growth over the medium term. TJX's balance sheet presents no red flags for investors, and instead offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets driven by increases in cash and inventory, modest liability growth, and a reduction in debt. The result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholders' equity while leverage remained low. The company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts' Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs Analysts' trends align with the fundamental and technical picture. Coverage has expanded, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts carry a Buy rating, and price targets have trended higher. After the Q3 release the consensus views the stock as fairly valued, but the directional trend points to the upper end of the range — near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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