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The Earnings360 Team
For Your Education and Enjoyment 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 have reached new all-time highs. Despite sharp price swings, it's been a strong year for stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—recession risks, however, are not fully reflected in prices. And my special guest is willing to give you $10 in Bitcoin (BTC) if you take it seriously.
Right now is a very important time to pay attention to what we are doing and what is happening.
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This week we are holding several workshops and if you attend and pay attention my special guest is going to send you $10 in Bitcoin. >> Register right here Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but a narrow group of names—mostly tied to the AI boom—is clearly lifting the market. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation around 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for more affluent households. Lower-income consumers, by contrast, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans and, more recently, an uptick in foreclosures suggest that segment of the population is weakening. The labor market had been the economy's strongest pillar, but even that is beginning to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40% after recent de-escalation of trade tensions. That still represents a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. That's historically low market breadth, which adds to investor concern. This isn't a redux of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs chasing quick gains. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that often have strong balance sheets, but many investors worry those names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Here are three investments that offer the potential for asymmetric upside in the current uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for many income-oriented portfolios. The 2.8% dividend yield could look even more attractive if interest rates fall. Plus, 2025 brings potential growth—the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside. It's unclear how the company's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect earnings. If the deal closes and related issues around Tylenol subside, there would likely be a small EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, that dilution could reverse as cost synergies between the companies roll in, potentially boosting EPS. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company to consider is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics illustrates that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). This is a meaningful addition to JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more attractive to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach by investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a valid choice, but with potential AI overexuberance, it may be worth considering the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If worries about an AI bubble intensify, investors may rotate into the more diversified, blue-chip names that make up the Dow 30. That rotation could make DIA a compelling asymmetric play to capture a flight to safety. As of this writing, DIA has roughly 37% institutional ownership, but it has seen more buying than selling in seven of the last eight quarters—suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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