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This Month's Bonus News United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation BeginsWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published: 1/28/2026. 
Key Points - United Parcel Service has returned to growth sooner than expected, and its stock price looks to be in rebound mode.
- An ample capital return is reliable in 2026, with distributions expected to increase.
- Analysts and institutional data align with a market bottom and reversal, and trends will likely strengthen as 2026 progresses.
The long-awaited bottom in United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) stock has arrived, and the rebound is underway. Supported by stronger results, improved operational quality, and an outlook for growth, the rebound should be substantial for long-term holders. The UPS market, long weighed down by distribution-focused selling and downward price pressure from analysts, is returning to an accumulation posture that is likely to strengthen as the year progresses. Analysts and Institutions Have Shifted to Bullish The shift is visible in analyst activity. The analyst consensus currently rates the stock a Hold, and analysts began raising price targets in late 2025. While President Trump's official salary is $400,000 per year... his tax returns reveal he's been collecting up to $250,000 PER MONTH from one hidden source. Until recently, most Americans couldn't touch the type of investment that makes up this investment. But thanks to Executive Order 14330, that just changed. If you love investing in disruptive new companies... Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >> Those bullish revisions continued into the opening weeks of 2026 and are likely to gather momentum now that 2026 guidance is available. The company forecasted $89.7 billion in net revenue—about 300 basis points above MarketBeat's reported consensus—anticipating growth a full year earlier than previously expected. Margins are also expected to remain strong, supporting a leveraged earnings rebound. Institutional activity has been constructive as well: institutions own roughly 60% of this high-yielding stock and were net buyers in Q4 2025. Some selling coincided with a late-cycle low in UPS shares, but a shift to accumulation late in the quarter has extended into January 2026 and appears poised to continue. Q4 2025 results and the 2026 guide also underpin a reliable capital-return program for investors. Dividend Strength and Buybacks Reward Investors Trading near COVID-19-era lows, the stock yields more than 6%, and management expects to sustain dividend increases in coming years. The 2026 guidance implies payments modestly higher than in 2025, suggesting another low-single-digit increase is likely. In addition, buybacks reduced the share count by approximately 0.7% in 2025 and are expected to continue reducing it in 2026. UPS Accelerates Stock Reversal With Strong Results UPS reported a solid Q4 despite a year-over-year revenue contraction. Revenue fell 3.2%, but the decline was smaller than expected—beating by nearly half a billion dollars—driven by strength in revenue per package and international markets that helped offset domestic volume weakness and softer supply-chain solutions. Adjusted operating margin contracted as expected but aligned with forecasts, leaving adjusted earnings above consensus by a similar margin. For investors, the opportunity is to acquire the stock early in the rebound. Given the earnings outlook, potential for outperformance, and shifting analyst posture, a cycle of outperformance and bullish revisions appears underway. In that scenario, UPS shares could reach the high end of the early-2026 target range—representing roughly a 40% move from the pre-release close—as upgrades and price-target revisions stimulate demand. UPS Advances Following Strong 2026 Guide UPS stock ticked higher after its 2026 guide, indicating support near the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 30-day EMA is rising along with the 150-day EMA following a Golden Cross that formed in December 2025. That technical signal, combined with increased accumulation, suggests a solid support base. If these EMAs and the surrounding cluster continue to hold, a more substantial price rebound is likely. 
Key 2026 catalysts will include persistent growth, outperformance, and margin recovery. Management's push into digitization, automation, and AI should gain traction and compound as business quality improves. Amazon-related volume is expected to stabilize as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin consumer and commercial traffic. Industry-specific initiatives—particularly in healthcare, where UPS targets time- and temperature-sensitive transportation—are also expected to drive strength.
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