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Thank you. | | Archie Bland
Editor, First Edition | | | |
| Hello, and happy local election results day from your caffeine-addled, sugared-up, banana-stuffed correspondent at the count in Silksworth Sports Centre in Sunderland, where Labour had a pretty average night – but fears of losing control of an iconic council to the Conservatives did not materialise, and only the Liberal Democrats picked up any seats.
As we send this email, it's that same sort of messy picture across the country: disappointment but not catastrophe for the Conservatives, some Labour successes coming with plenty of big asterisks attached, and the Liberal Democrats and the Greens the only parties to really be able to point to unambiguous success.
Shortly before 7am, the Tories had lost 100 seats. Labour had gained 57, the Lib Dems 46, and the Greens 22. It's tricky to draw hard and fast conclusions when there's so much yet to come, but one way to see the mood so far is as anti-Tory – but not quite pro-Labour.
The story's moving quickly, and there's plenty more of it to come today – so I won't be offended if you want to check in on Andy Sparrow's indispensable live blog, or take a look at the latest results here. If you want to catch up on what we've learned so far, that's coming up after the rest of the headlines. | | | | | | |
 | | Five Big Stories | | | | | | | | | | 5 | | Baby P | The Parole Board rejected an appeal by justice secretary Dominic Raab against the release from prison of Tracey Connelly, the mother of Baby P, who died after months of abuse. Raab claimed the decision proved the Parole Board needs a "fundamental overhaul". | | | | | | | | In depth: what just happened |  | | Sunderland seems like a constituency that gets at something bigger: to win the next election, Labour needs to regain strength in the "red wall" – but even as it tries to make progress in areas like this, where it has suffered shocking losses in recent years, it is still worrying about losing ground.
In the end, Labour held on to overall control comfortably – and the only seat it lost was to the Lib Dems, who took another off the Tories. But the scenes of jubilation as the results came suggested that nobody thought it was a sure thing. After the result, a councillor told me: "Look, we've won, and that's great, but anyone who says there weren't nerves is having a laugh."
Sunderland is a tiny part of the national picture – and even when you zoom out you find huge swathes of the map, including all of Scotland and Wales and the Stormont election in Northern Ireland, yet to be filled in. But there are some provisional takeaways: |  | | The results don't suggest that Labour is on course for a majority in Westminster | | Probably the hardest part of the results to interpret so far is what's happened in the fabled "red wall", the seats in Brexit-supporting, mostly northern areas where Labour's vote collapsed in the last general election.
"It's not clearcut," said Rowena Mason, the Guardian's deputy political editor, who drew the night shift. "You see Labour doing well in this new unitary authority in Cumberland – but then you see them fail to take back control of somewhere like Hartlepool, or Bolton.
"There's not the sort of clear story of Labour progress so far that you would need to win a general election. You can't see them as a homogenous block – there are local issues in play, and differences between urban and rural areas."
James Johnson, a former Downing Street pollster, argued that Labour's performance was not a failure to win back the "red wall" – because its performance was in seats that last came up in 2018, before the collapse in Labour support in those places. That means that an apparently static performance could be better than it looks. But it still appears to be a long way from where the party needs to be confident of winning a Westminster majority. | | | | Labour has made real progress in London | | If the picture elsewhere in England was complicated, the story in London was simple: it was a good night for Labour. Most dramatically, they took control of Wandsworth council after 44 years of Tory control – and Westminster, a genuine surprise. They took Barnet. The Conservatives hung on to Hillingdon, but lost four seats. And there were reports that of their 11 councillors in Richmond, they lost all but one. (Mind you, that's all Lib Dems – Labour don't have a seat there either.) |  | | Boris Johnson was once feted as the Tory who could win over London's 9 million voters; now he is toxic in most of the capital, which elects one in nine British MPs. | | | | Defeated Tories are very angry with Boris Johnson | | Maybe the most uncomfortable part of the night for the prime minister is the number of disappointed local Conservative figures who blame him squarely for their losses. In Sunderland, Conservative group leader Antony Mullen seemed pretty angry as he spoke. "We've come close in a number of seats, and were it not for the national picture – Partygate – I think we would have won them," he told me. "I can only put it down to that. I think a lot of Conservative voters were staying at home." He repeated a call for Johnson to resign.
Among a number of other examples, in the new council area of Cumberland, where Labour took the council despite all three MPs in the area being Conservative, local Tory leader John Mallinson called for Johnson to be replaced and said he could understand why voters "no longer have the confidence that their prime minister can be relied upon to tell the truth".
Mallinson's interview felt like one which will be replayed on news bulletins all day. And we're likely to see Tory MPs loyal to Johnson asked if they're really telling bruised local candidates that they don't understand why they've lost. But will they act? "I think this result so far leaves it in the balance," said Rowena. "A lot of them have been looking for an excuse ... On the other hand they may feel that more fines over Partygate would strengthen their case." | | | | Liberal Democrats, Greens, and independents had a good night | | Seven years after their post-coalition local election meltdown, the Lib Dems seem to be finally making progress, taking Hull council from Labour, denying the Tories overall control in West Oxfordshire, and taking nearly 50 seats overall so far. The Greens have more than doubled their starting tally in the seats being contested already.
Meanwhile, at 3.30am, John Curtice said that "independent candidates in key wards have done remarkably well", taking 26% of the vote where they have stood. The smaller parties have been particularly influential in the south so far, where they account for all of what Sky News calculates is a 26% loss in average share for the Conservatives.
All of that chimes with the sense on the ground in Sunderland that there is a huge amount to play for before any general election – and that the local elections may end up looking like a contest between protest and inertia. The question now is whether anybody can break that holding pattern.
"I'm pig-sick of Labour here and I'm pig-sick of the Tories in London," said Simon, a 62-year-old on his way to the polls in Sunderland's Silksworth ward last night. "I don't know why I'm bothering to vote at all." | | | | | | Enjoying this newsletter? Sign up here to receive First Edition for free every weekday morning | | | | | | | | Something for the weekend |  | | Our critics' roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now
TV
The Dry (BritBox)
"Like Normal People, with which this dramedy about a recovering alcoholic in Dublin shares a production company, there's a great deal of melancholia, emotional integrity and good-looking folk. The lurches from comedy to tragedy occasionally feel jarring, but mostly they're vital and authentic" – Chitra Ramaswamy
Music
Arcade Fire – We
"This is some of Arcade Fire's most straightforward music to date, reliant on tried-and-tested techniques for rousing vast crowds. But even if We isn't a return to the standards they reached on their debut album Funeral, it's an improvement on its predecessor" – Alexis Petridis
Film
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
"There's genial high-energy panache as Benedict Cumberbatch returns as Marvel's mindbending surgeon turned superhero, though infinite realities tend to reduce the dramatic impact of any one single reality, and reduces what there is at stake in a given situation. Nonetheless, it's handled with lightness and fun" – Peter Bradshaw
Podcast
Deliver Us from Ervil
"How did Colonia LeBaron go from being a Mormon community to a place where organised crime thrived? Host Jesse Hyde looks at the Mexican town's history since the 1950s, tracing the story of a utopia that went very wrong" – Hannah Verdier | | | | | | | | The Upside | | A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad |  | | Mike Duxbury, a farmer who lost his sight at the age of 6, has set up a farm that has been adapted to help train people with disabilities for a career in agriculture. Inclusive Farm, which is in Bedfordshire, is already helping their first 14 students become qualified in various agriculture and animal care courses. Duxbury believes that creating an environment where all kinds of people are welcomed can help revolutionise farming: "[They] can bring something new to farming and make it more modern, wider-thinking and more 21st-century." | | | | | | Enjoyed this newsletter? Sign up here to receive First Edition for free every weekday morning | | | | | | | |
