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This Month's Exclusive Content United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation BeginsAuthored by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 1/28/2026. 
In Brief - United Parcel Service has returned to growth sooner than expected, and its stock price looks to be in rebound mode.
- An ample capital return is reliable in 2026, with distributions expected to increase.
- Analysts and institutional data align with a market bottom and reversal, and trends will likely strengthen as 2026 progresses.
The long-awaited bottom for United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) appears to be in, and a rebound is underway. Supported by stronger results, improved operational execution and a growth-oriented outlook, the recovery could be substantial for long-term holders. Once pressured by distribution and downward analyst sentiment, the stock has shifted into an accumulation phase that is likely to gain momentum through the year. Analysts and Institutions Shift Toward Bullish The change is evident among analysts: the group still carries a consensus Hold, but analysts began raising price targets in late 2025. Jerome Powell says gold is not money. The Fed says inflation is under control and the dollar is strong. But look at what they do. Central banks bought more gold last year than any time since 1967. China dumped $100 billion in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey are all loading up. In 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's money and showed the world that assets can be seized. Now major nations want out. There's only one asset no one can freeze: gold. Get the name and ticker of one stock positioned for this shift. Those bullish revisions continued into the first weeks of 2026 and are likely to strengthen now that the 2026 guidance is public. UPS forecast $89.7 billion in net revenue—about 300 basis points above MarketBeat's consensus—expecting growth a year earlier than previously anticipated. Margins are expected to remain healthy, implying a leveraged earnings rebound. Institutional activity looks constructive as well. Institutions own roughly 60% of UPS and were net buyers in Q4 2025. While some selling coincided with the stock's low, a late-quarter shift back into accumulation continued into January 2026 and appears set to firm. Combined with Q4 2025 results and the 2026 guide, this supports a reliable capital‑return program for investors. Dividend Strength and Buybacks Reward Investors Trading near COVID‑19-era lows, UPS yields more than 6% and appears positioned to continue raising distributions. The 2026 guide implies payouts slightly above 2025—likely another low‑single‑digit increase. Share repurchases trimmed the share count by roughly 0.7% in 2025 and are expected to continue in 2026. UPS Accelerates Reversal With Strong Results UPS delivered a solid Q4 despite reporting a net contraction. Revenue fell 3.2%, smaller than expected and roughly $500 million better than consensus. Strength in revenue per package and international markets offset weakness in domestic volumes and supply‑chain solutions. Adjusted operating margin contracted as anticipated and matched forecasts, leaving adjusted earnings modestly above consensus. The opportunity for investors is to position early in this rebound. The outlook for earnings, potential for outperformance and shifting analyst posture together suggest a cycle of outperformance and further bullish revisions. Under this scenario, UPS could reach the high end of early‑2026 target ranges—about a 40% upside from the pre‑release close—as upgrades and higher price targets lift market appetite. UPS Advances Following Strong 2026 Guide UPS stock edged higher after its 2026 guide, indicating support near the 30‑day exponential moving average (EMA). The 30‑day EMA is rising along with the 150‑day EMA after a Golden Crossover formed in December 2025. That technical signal aligns with the shift toward accumulation and is a likely area of support. If these EMAs and the surrounding cluster continue to hold, a more substantial price rebound seems likely.  Catalysts in 2026 should include sustained growth, outperformance and margin recovery. UPS's push into digitization, automation and AI is expected to gain traction and improve business quality. Amazon‑related volume declines are likely to stabilize as the mix shifts toward higher‑margin consumer and business traffic. Sector‑specific initiatives—most notably healthcare, with specialized time‑ and temperature‑sensitive logistics—should also help drive growth.
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