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More Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
Key Points - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. A little-known government task force just wrapped up a 20-year project, and its findings could unlock access to a massive U.S. national asset. Under existing law, everyday Americans may now have a legal path to participate in what some are calling a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Details are still flying under the radar, but that may not last. See the full briefing and how it works With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a chance Moderna shares have life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's release of better-than-expected revenue guidance and evidence of tighter cost control. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. The company also forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. This would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Still, virtually all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That contrasts sharply with late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to rely on COVID treatments alone for sustainable growth. Nevertheless, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and older adults. The company also has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first full year to reflect these agreements. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government deals could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal-vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be an important catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection and improving the company's chances of hitting its 2028 target. For investors to get truly excited, however, Moderna will likely need success outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth, so the company needs progress in areas such as oncology and rare diseases to change its longer-term trajectory. Moderna has several candidates in development with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important among them is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran. Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three data possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales will truly stabilize or bottom out is not guaranteed. The company's long-term future depends heavily on obtaining approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in an area where Moderna specializes, which has added to concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A clear stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, plus positive clinical readouts beyond seasonal vaccines, would be key prerequisites to becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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