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This Week's Bonus Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
Summary - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares rose more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have fallen sharply as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's release of stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost projections. Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of roughly $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Most of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines. That contrasts sharply with late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed the primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That reduces the pool of potential patients and makes it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth relying solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic contracts with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year Moderna realizes the full-year benefit of those partnerships. Notably, the firm expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government agreements could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be a major catalyst, adding a second seasonal product addressing a widespread infection and improving the company's odds of hitting its 2028 goal. However, for investors to regain real enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth, so while vaccines could provide a revenue floor, the company needs approvals in areas such as oncology and rare diseases to drive sustained upside. Moderna has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy intismeran — the company expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with Phase III results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term future depends heavily on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no approved products. Federal policymakers have also moved to scale back investments in mRNA development — winding down government support in the technology area Moderna specializes in — which has increased concerns about the path to future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and positive non-seasonal clinical readouts would be key prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
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