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Saturday's Featured News United Parcel Service Transitions to Growth: Accumulation BeginsWritten by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 1/28/2026. 
In Brief - United Parcel Service has returned to growth sooner than expected, and its stock price looks to be in rebound mode.
- An ample capital return is reliable in 2026, with distributions expected to increase.
- Analysts and institutional data align with a market bottom and reversal, and trends will likely strengthen as 2026 progresses.
The long-awaited bottom in United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) stock appears to be in, and a rebound is underway. Supported by stronger results, improved operational quality, and a clearer growth outlook, the rebound could be substantial for long-term holders. The UPS market, long affected by distributive activity and downward pressure from analyst downgrades, is back in an accumulation posture and is likely to strengthen as the year progresses. Analysts and Institutions Have Shifted to Bullish The shift is evident in analyst activity. The analyst group still rates the stock a consensus Hold, but began raising price targets in late 2025. Those bullish revisions continued into the first weeks of 2026 and are likely to gain further momentum now that the company has issued 2026 guidance. The company forecast $89.7 billion in net revenue—approximately 300 basis points above MarketBeat's consensus—expecting growth a full year earlier than previously anticipated. Margins are also expected to remain strong, suggesting a leveraged earnings rebound may be ahead. Institutional activity is similarly constructive: institutions own roughly 60% of this high-yielding stock and were net buyers in Q4 2025. While institutional sales coincided with a fresh low in UPS shares, a late-quarter shift to accumulation carried into January 2026 and appears likely to strengthen. In addition to growth, Q4 2025 results and the 2026 guide support a healthy, reliable capital-return program for investors. Dividend Strength and Buybacks Reward Investors The stock, trading near COVID-19-era lows, yields more than 6% and is expected to see further dividend increases in coming years. The 2026 guidance implies payouts slightly above 2025 levels, pointing to another low-single-digit increase ahead. Additionally, buybacks reduced the share count by roughly 0.7% in 2025 and are expected to continue shrinking it in 2026. UPS Accelerates Stock Reversal With Strong Results UPS delivered a solid Q4 despite reporting a net contraction. Revenue fell 3.2%, but the decline was smaller than expected—beating forecasts by nearly $500 million—helped by strength in revenue per package and international markets that offset weakness in domestic volume and supply-chain solutions. Adjusted operating margin contracted as expected but was in line with forecasts, leaving adjusted earnings above consensus by a similar margin. This presents an opportunity for investors to enter early in the rebound. The earnings outlook, potential for outperformance, and shifting analyst sentiment point to a cycle of outperformance and upward revisions. In that scenario, UPS shares could reach the high end of the early-2026 target range—roughly 40% above the pre-release close—as upgrades and higher price targets drive market demand. UPS Advances Following Strong 2026 Guide Shares rose after the 2026 guide, finding support near the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA). The 30-day EMA is moving higher along with the 150-day EMA following a Golden Crossover in December 2025. The signal aligns with changing market conditions and accumulation and is likely to indicate strong support. If this EMA and the cluster of EMAs continue to hold, a more substantial price rebound should follow. 
Key catalysts in 2026 include persistent growth, outperformance, and margin recovery. The company's push into digitization, automation, and AI should gain traction and compound as business quality improves. The Amazon-related volume decline is expected to stabilize as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin, higher-quality consumer and commercial traffic. Industry-specific focus—particularly healthcare—should also drive strength, as UPS targets specialized, time- and temperature-sensitive transportation solutions.
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