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More Reading from MarketBeat Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13, marking the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger cost-management metrics. For 2025, Moderna now expects $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its prior midpoint guidance—and forecasts operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That guidance implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5 billion to $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the previous year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Still, nearly all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines—compared with $7.2 billion in a single quarter in late 2021. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential customers, making it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships with Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 is the first year Moderna will see the full-year benefit of some of those agreements. Notably, the company expects roughly $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government deals could provide a stable revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost cuts, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and successful commercialization of that vaccine would be an important catalyst, adding a second seasonal product with broad demand. However, for investors to become truly bullish, Moderna will likely need success outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets can provide a revenue floor but limited long-term growth. To deliver sustained upside, the company needs approvals in oncology or rare disease programs where it currently has no marketed products. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with Phase 3 results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, significant uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have fully bottomed, and the company's long-term trajectory depends heavily on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no products. Regulatory and policy headwinds also complicate the picture. The Trump administration has been critical of mRNA technology and has wound down some government investments in the field, adding to investor caution about future approvals and support. At this stage, Moderna is a stock to monitor. The consensus price target sits near the low $30s, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing a stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand—or meaningful progress from its non-seasonal pipeline—would be important prerequisites before becoming more constructive on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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