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Just For You Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is ReboundingWritten by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/9/2026. 
Quick Look - Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a disastrous 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a brighter note. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) initiated a position in Constellation during Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Berkshire held 13.4 million Constellation shares, valued near $1.8 billion at the time. General weakness in the beer market and among Constellation's customers contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the difficult environment it faces. Note that the company's fiscal year runs on a different schedule than the calendar year. SpaceX just announced it is rapidly repositioning 4,400 Starlink satellites into lower Earth orbit. While the official explanation points to safety and debris concerns, the move comes days after China labeled Starlink a national security threat, raising serious questions about what's really happening behind the scenes.
If this escalation in space is an early warning signal, most investors won't react until markets already feel the impact. One analyst has updated his playbook for how to protect capital if geopolitical tensions accelerate. See the full briefing and his 3-step plan here However, as of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares were up more than 7% in 2026. The stock has rebounded roughly 16% since hitting a 2025 low near $128 in November. The firm's latest earnings report also sent shares up 5.3%. Below is a breakdown of Constellation's most recent results and what they mean for the stock. Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom Line Beat In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, a 10% year-over-year decline but roughly $52 million above analysts' expectations. The consumer staples company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, down about 6% from a year earlier but well ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.63 (which implied a 19% drop). The company's beer segment, which accounted for about 90% of revenue, saw sales decline 1%. That drop was smaller than the rest of the beer industry, allowing Constellation to gain market share. Amid a weak backdrop, Constellation's beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026 Constellation led the beer category in dollar share gains, and that performance also held true in FY2025. Although sales in the segment fell, the beer business's operating margin rose by 10 basis points, indicating solid cost management. Pulling down overall growth was the Wine and Spirits segment, where sales fell 51%, largely because Constellation divested SVEDKA vodka and part of its wine portfolio. Excluding those divestitures, Wine and Spirits sales dropped about 7%. On a pro forma basis excluding those impacts across the company, sales were down roughly 2% — far better than the reported 10% decline. Overall, Constellation's quarter looked stronger than the headline numbers suggested. Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ Could Have Significant Room to Run Trading around $148, Constellation has only partially recovered from its 2025 low near $128. That low was not only the bottom for last year; it was the stock's lowest level since April 2020, shortly after the March 2020 COVID-19 market collapse. In other words, Constellation is rebounding from a historic drawdown rather than just a short-term dip — a dynamic that could leave considerable upside if the recovery continues. Berkshire Buys and Price Targets Support Constellation's Potential Berkshire bought more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025. During that quarter, Constellation's lowest closing price was $158, roughly 7% above the current price, implying Berkshire's purchases were at higher levels than today's market. Since then, Berkshire has increased its stake in Constellation, signaling continued confidence even as the stock has fallen. That activity suggests Berkshire still sees meaningful appreciation potential. Wall Street analysts also see upside: the MarketBeat consensus price target of about $182 implies roughly 23% upside from current levels. Still, the beer industry faces questions. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol, the lowest figure on record. That share, however, has fallen to similarly low levels before and later rebounded, suggesting current trends may be more cyclical than structural — a potential tailwind if consumption recovers. Combine Constellation's track record of beer segment share gains, disciplined cost management and a reasonable valuation, and the company's outlook currently skews to the upside.
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