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This Month's Exclusive News Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Key Points - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plunged as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. Recent algorithm alerts have flagged stocks like Nuburu, MSS, and Rebel Holdings ahead of sharp moves — including triple-digit gains in a short time frame. These signals all came from Tim Bohen's new system, called The Monday Algo, which scans the market each week for early breakout setups.
Now, the algorithm is highlighting a new low-priced stock heading into Monday. While no trade is guaranteed, Tim is breaking down why this setup stands out — and how he and his students approach these Monday momentum opportunities. See the latest Monday Algo setup here With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there reason to think Moderna shares could recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger-than-expected cost controls. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. The company also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That implies non-adjusted operating expenses of about $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion for 2025, roughly $2 billion less than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects its costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That pales in comparison to late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to return to sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has secured strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full benefit of those deals. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and leaning on government contracts could establish a more predictable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine candidate that could be approved in 2026 and start generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of that product would be a major catalyst, adding a second seasonal offering for a common infection. However, investors likely need to see success outside seasonal markets for the company to regain stronger long-term upside. Seasonal vaccines can provide a revenue floor, but they do not typically offer large growth potential. Moderna will need progress in areas such as oncology and rare diseases to materially change its outlook. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most notable is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026 and potential Phase Three data later in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still colours Moderna's outlook. It is far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects depend heavily on regulatory approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no approved medicines. Earlier federal policy moves have also reduced government investment in mRNA development, which has added to concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, underscoring why many analysts remain cautious. A visible stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, meaningful revenue from non-COVID products, or positive pivotal readouts in oncology/rare disease would be key prerequisites before becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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