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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?By Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Summary - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been crushed as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down over 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. A little-known government task force just wrapped up a 20-year project, and its findings could unlock access to a massive U.S. national asset. Under existing law, everyday Americans may now have a legal path to participate in what some are calling a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Details are still flying under the radar, but that may not last. See the full briefing and how it works With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company raising its revenue guidance and reporting stronger cost controls. For 2025, Moderna now expects about $1.9 billion in revenue — roughly $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance — and forecasts operating expenses about $200 million below previous estimates. That guidance implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly a $2 billion decline from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a far cry from late 2021, when one quarter produced $7.2 billion. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential customers. That makes it difficult for Moderna to rely on COVID treatments alone for sustainable growth. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand from high-risk groups and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships (Canada, the U.K., and Australia), and 2026 will be the first year it expects the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting higher-risk populations and maintaining government contracts could provide a revenue foundation going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy plus cost reductions can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine candidate that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be a major catalyst by adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to deliver long-term growth. To rekindle investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success in non-seasonal categories such as oncology and rare diseases. Several candidates in those areas have pivotal or key readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026 and potential Phase III data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's far from guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have reached their nadir, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, scaling back government investments in the mRNA space, which has added to concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and positive readouts outside seasonal vaccines — would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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