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The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break Out
Reported by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 11/20/2025.
Article Highlights
- TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are favorable for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock price.
Macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and hurt results at many major retailers have created a buying environment that benefits off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, enabling them to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers.
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The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, reinforced by outperformance and improved Q4 guidance (which may remain cautious), suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue.
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year
The TJX Companies reported a strong quarter, delivering revenue of $15.12 billion — up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength came from a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count.
TJX Canada led the way, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% rise at Home Goods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments recorded net growth, which supported margin expansion.
Margins improved meaningfully. Revenue leverage and the selling environment boosted gross margin by about 100 basis points, and operating improvements produced further leverage to the bottom line. GAAP EPS rose roughly 12%, aided by share repurchases that reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% for the quarter.
TJX provided Q4 guidance that came in somewhat below expectations. Still, the shortfall is modest versus MarketBeat's consensus and does not undermine the company's strong year-to-date performance.
As a result, full-year guidance was raised: comp-store growth is now expected at 4% with low-end EPS of $4.63 — more than a nickel above consensus. Given TJX's historically conservative guidance, further outperformance is likely to be reported when Q4 results are released in January.
Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher
Capital returns are a key driver of the TJX stock. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, aggressively reducing its share count each year. The dividend is roughly average compared with the S&P 500, but it is reliable and growing.
The payout ratio is below 40%, supporting continued annual increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears capable of sustaining a double-digit dividend compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future.
TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and supports ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets — driven by cash and inventory increases — partially offset by modest liability growth and a reduction in debt. Shareholders' equity rose nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity.
Analysts' Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs
The analysts' trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook. Trends include broader coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts assigning a Buy rating, and an upward trajectory for the price target.
Consensus views the stock as reasonably valued after the Q3 results, but the directional trend points toward the high end of the range — near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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