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The Earnings360 Team
Further Reading from MarketBeat The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail backdrop is favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, a trend reflected in its recent results and the stock's performance. Macroeconomic shifts and changing consumer habits that pressured many large retailers have created an advantageous environment for off-price players like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive values to still-resilient shoppers. The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with operational outperformance and an improved outlook for Q4 (likely cautious), suggests the uptrend in TJX shares should continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies reported a strong quarter, with revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year and roughly 175 basis points above consensus. Strength came from a 5% systemwide comparable-store sales gain, broad-based strength across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led growth with an 8% increase year-over-year, followed by a 6% rise in the core Marmaxx divisions, 5% at HomeGoods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments posted stronger net growth, which supported margin expansion. Gross margin improved about 100 basis points, driven by revenue leverage and operating gains, producing leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose 12%, aided by share repurchases that trimmed the average share count by roughly 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that came in a touch below some expectations, but the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and doesn't erase the strength seen year to date. As a result, full-year guidance was raised: comp-store growth is now expected around 4%, and the low end of the EPS range sits at $4.63—about $0.05 above consensus. Given management's tendency to be conservative, the company could again outperform when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's share performance. The company both pays dividends and repurchases shares, steadily reducing share count each year. The dividend, while modest versus the S&P 500, is secure and growing. The payout ratio remains below 40%, supporting continued annual increases from this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears positioned to sustain a double-digit compound annual growth rate in its dividend over the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets—driven by increases in cash and inventory—offset by smaller liability increases and a reduction in debt. The result was about a 15% increase in shareholders' equity and persistently low leverage; the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt roughly 0.2x equity. Analyst Trends Push TJX Stock to New Highs Analyst trends align with the fundamental and technical picture: coverage has broadened, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts rate the stock Buy, and price targets have trended higher. The consensus view after Q3 pegs the stock near fair value, but momentum points to the upper end of the range—around $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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