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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it has been a strong year to own stocks. Still, many economists, analysts and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—recession risks, by many measures, are not fully reflected in prices. Some of Wall Street's biggest players have been taking advantage of the same early-morning price behavior for years — a pattern that appears shortly after the opening bell when overnight institutional flows hit the market. Most retail traders never notice it, but Dave Aquino has spent years studying this window and developed a simple routine built to capitalize on it without relying on news or predictions.
He calls it the Good Morning Cash Plan — a single morning setup designed to give traders a structured, rules-based approach before the day even begins. Dave breaks down the full method in a free training session, including how he identifies the setup each morning. Watch the Good Morning Cash Plan training here Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled, but the market is clearly being lifted by a narrow group of names, largely tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current commentary centers on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation near 3%—still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans, and an uptick in foreclosures suggest this problem is intensifying. The labor market, long the economy's strongest pillar, is starting to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently lowered its estimate of the probability of a recession from 60% to 40% after recent de-escalation in trade tensions. That still represents a material risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Charles Schwab data shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages was slightly above 50%. That is historically low breadth and contributes to investor concern. This isn't a replay of 2021 when many piled into unprofitable SPACs chasing quick gains. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap names that often have ample cash on their balance sheets, yet many investors view some valuations as stretched. So what's an investor to do? Below are three investments that can offer asymmetric return potential in an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is part of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case—making it a staple for income-focused investors. The 2.8% dividend yield could look even better if rates fall, and a $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside from current levels. It's unclear how P&G's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect earnings. If the deal closes and the Tylenol controversy fades, investors should expect a modest EPS dilution in the first year, followed by potential EPS accretion as cost synergies materialize. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Haida Therapeutics (a clinical-stage company) gives JNJ access to the HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer therapy that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This will be a meaningful addition to JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more attractive to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach—primarily investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a solid investment, but with potential AI overexuberance in the market, it may be prudent to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble deepen, investors are likely to rotate into the Dow 30's large, diversified industrial and consumer names, making DIA a reasonable asymmetric play to capture that shift. As of this writing, DIA has roughly 37% institutional ownership. It has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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