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The Earnings360 Team
Thursday's Featured Story The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its recent results and stock performance. The macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and hurt many major retailers have created a beneficial environment for off-price operators like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer compelling value to still-resilient shoppers. While everyone's making predictions about what might happen in 2026, we've identified 5 stocks with catalysts that are already locked and loaded.
These aren't hopes or projections. These are scheduled events, signed contracts, and approved projects that will play out over the next 12 months.
The difference between 100% gains and missing out completely? Positioning before 2026 arrives. Click here to get your free copy of this report The takeaway: industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and an upward revision to full-year guidance (likely conservative), suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year and about 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Results were driven by a 5% systemwide comparable-store sales gain, broad strength across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led growth with an 8% increase year-over-year, followed by a 6% gain in the Marmaxx divisions, 5% in HomeGoods, and 3% internationally. All segments contributed to stronger net growth, which supported margin expansion. Margin improvement was notable: gross margin widened roughly 100 basis points thanks to favorable selling conditions and revenue leverage, and operating improvements further amplified earnings. GAAP diluted EPS rose about 12%, aided by share repurchases that reduced the average share count by roughly 1.3% for the quarter. Q4 guidance came in slightly softer than some anticipated, but the shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not erase the strong year-to-date performance. Net of this, full-year guidance was raised: comp-store growth is expected near 4%, and low-end EPS guidance was lifted to $4.63—more than five cents above consensus. Given the trends and TJX's history of conservative guidance, the company may again post upside when it reports Q4 results in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays a dividend and aggressively repurchases shares, steadily reducing its share count each year. The dividend yield is about in line with the S&P 500; it is well-covered and rising. The payout ratio is below 40%, supporting continued annual increases from this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears positioned to sustain strong compounded dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights include growth in current and total assets—driven by higher cash and inventory—while liabilities rose more modestly and debt declined. Shareholders' equity moved up nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs Analysts' sentiment has strengthened and aligns with the fundamental and technical picture. Coverage has expanded, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts rate the stock a Buy, and price targets have trended higher. While the consensus views the stock as fairly valued after Q3, the directional trend points toward the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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