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Today's Featured Story Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time — an increase of about 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and inflationary headwinds, Black Friday remains a crucial driver of holiday-season spending. Three retailers well positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How might these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is most likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon remains the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — and cover all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers during this period. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also has the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a position it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's extraordinary product selection and its ability to undercut rivals on price are largely enabled by its logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to use its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few areas where brick-and-mortar stores have held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has become one of the most successful legacy chains to adopt a true omnichannel strategy that blends in-store experiences with a growing online business. This approach has supported strong results in both U.S. and international markets and contributed to some of the company's best earnings in recent quarters. Walmart has also attracted some third-party sellers from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an important driver of growth. Coupled with a robust fulfillment network, Walmart can price competitively, manage inventory effectively across channels and retain one of the most loyal customer bases among major retailers. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has had to carve out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — including a narrower third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some competitors. That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for offering strong value on quality items across key categories. Its popular store pickup program, where customers buy online and collect in store, gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a consumer boycott after it rolled back parts of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be a chance for the company to regain momentum or fall further behind peers. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue expectations, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion. Neither Walmart nor Target has provided a public holiday revenue forecast as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the most recent quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue for the period. Target does not provide an equivalent breakdown, but its digital comparable sales have recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given Walmart's broad omnichannel reach, large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, it looks well positioned to lead the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to play that strength may consider shares ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which should reflect performance during the Black Friday period. Looking at the broader retail landscape, however, Amazon could still emerge as the overall leader. It has scale across a wider range of products at lower prices than many competitors, plus the additional tailwinds of AWS, cloud services and advertising revenue. Moreover, while Black Friday is most important in the United States, the wider holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's massive international presence gives it a meaningful advantage outside the U.S.
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