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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends across Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, increasingly, the entire month of November, retail sales follow suit. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a gain of roughly 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season spending. Trump Ally Says Congress Approved the Setup for a Digital Dollar 2.0
But according to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green, it's a bill that contains "the entire setup, groundwork and infrastructure to move from cash to digital currency." >>> Click Here before it becomes law. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How might these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon remains the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud services, advertising and other businesses, its retail operation is still massive. Amazon's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, covering all categories; electronics, toys and beauty are traditionally among the top sellers during this period. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also posts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's enormous product selection and ability to undercut competitors on price stem largely from its logistics advantages. The firm is also preparing to use its extensive distribution network to disrupt the grocery market, one of the last areas where brick-and-mortar stores have held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store shopping with a growing online business. This approach has helped deliver some of the company's strongest earnings in recent quarters, both in the U.S. and internationally. Walmart has lured some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an important driver of overall sales growth. Its extensive fulfillment network also supports competitive pricing and smarter inventory planning for both in-store and online channels. Complementing these operational strengths is one of the most loyal customer bases among large retailers. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to stay competitive on Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than many rivals. That strategy has helped Target earn a reputation for value on quality items across categories. Its store pickup program, where customers order online and collect in-store, gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target has faced challenges recently, including consumer backlash after it rolled back aspects of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for a comeback or, alternatively, to widen the gap with its competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, versus gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $206 billion to $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has provided a public holiday revenue forecast as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter were $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue for the period. Target doesn't provide the same breakdown, but digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given its broad omnichannel strategy, large customer base and competitive pricing, Walmart looks well positioned to lead the U.S. Black Friday race this year. Investors who want exposure to that performance might consider buying shares ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday period. Across the broader retail landscape, however, Amazon remains a formidable contender. Its scale allows it to offer a wider range of products at lower prices, and it benefits from the tailwinds of AWS, cloud services and advertising revenue. Finally, Black Friday's importance varies by market, but the overall holiday season is critical worldwide. Amazon's massive international footprint gives it an additional advantage during that global sales period.
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