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The Earnings360 Team
Further Reading from MarketBeat Media The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail backdrop is favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, a fact reflected in both its quarterly results and its rising stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and weighed on many large retailers have created a strong buying environment for off-price chains like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer compelling value to still-resilient shoppers. Bitcoin's biggest moves are often missed by the skeptics — but after calling the $60,000 top, nailing the November 2022 bottom, and watching Bitcoin surge 500%+, I'm now tracking a little-known "Bitcoin loophole" that can target outsized payouts without needing to buy the coin outright. With Wall Street quietly accumulating Bitcoin at record levels — even bidding above market in some cases — the next wave could hit sooner than most expect, and this loophole may offer a far more powerful way to capture the upside. Click here to see how the Bitcoin loophole works and why I'm preparing for the next surge The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and an improved outlook, points to continued strength. The uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and roughly 175 basis points above consensus. Results were driven by a 5% systemwide comp, broad strength across divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led growth, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% gain at HomeGoods, and a 3% improvement internationally. All segments contributed to stronger net growth and supported margin expansion. Margin performance was notable. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage helped drive a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, supplemented by operating efficiencies that amplified earnings. GAAP EPS rose 12%, aided by share repurchases that reduced the share count by about 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was modestly below some expectations. However, the shortfall was small relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not undercut the company's strong year-to-date performance. As a result, full-year guidance was increased: the company now expects comp store growth of about 4% and, at the low end, earnings of $4.63—more than a nickel above consensus. Given historical conservatism in guidance, outperformance versus these targets is possible when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns remain a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company both pays a dividend and aggressively repurchases shares, steadily reducing its outstanding share count. The dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500 average, but the payout is secure and growing. The payout ratio is low—under 40%—so annual increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears positioned to sustain strong dividend growth going forward. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets—driven by increases in cash and inventory—alongside only modestly higher liabilities and a reduction in debt. The net effect was roughly a 15% increase in shareholders' equity and persistently low leverage. The company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt at about 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends support the fundamental and technical picture: greater coverage, improving sentiment, about 25 analysts rating the stock a Buy, and rising price targets. While consensus views the stock as reasonably valued after the Q3 release, the trend points toward the upper end of the range—near $170—which implies roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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