| | | Good morning! | | The Chinese government locked down Chengdu on Thursday pressing ahead with its Zero Covid policy, long after it has become evident to everyone that the approach does not work. There’s a school of thought that Beijing has no option but to persevere with this policy because its vaccines aren’t very effective, and tens of millions of people over the age of 80 have simply refused to be vaccinated. The Chengdu scare comes just around a month-and-a-half before the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which makes its timing particularly bad. It’s unlikely that it will change the course of events — Xi Jinping will almost certainly get a third (and historic) term, making him the most important Chinese leader since Mao (and in his own mind, perhaps the most important Chinese leader ever).  Still, the lockdown in Chengdu, one of China’s largest and most important cities, is the latest in a series of misfortunes the country has suffered this year. Many parts of China are suffering the worst drought in recorded history — with the resultant economic consequences. And a property crash earlier this year has affected the Chinese banking system, causing a run on small banks, and affecting the health of even large banks. Reuters reported this week that ICBC, the world’s biggest bank by assets, saw a 15% increase in bad debt related to real estate in the first six months of this year. Analysts have already slashed their estimates for Chinese GDP growth this year to around 3% (some have gone lower), compared to the government’s target of 5.5%. Indeed, some analysts believe the scars of the property crash may take a decade to heal, crimping GDP expansion through that period. | | THINK India, in contrast, seems better placed — there is the matter of low coverage of booster shots, but we will come to that anon — in terms of all aspects: its ability to manage Covid-19, the health of its banks, and the state of the economy. GDP data for the first quarter of 2022-23 was released this week, and suggested that the economy would expand at a sub-7% level this year, contrary to projections, including by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Council. Still, a 6.7-6.8% growth is not unimpressive , particularly in a time of global uncertainty. The data points to the need for more fiscal support; the informal sector, in particular has been badly hit, pointing to the continuation of the K-shaped recovery the Indian economy has seen. With the numbers showing a revival in private consumption, and high-frequency indicators (such as GST collections; purchase managers indices) still in the green, it is very likely that the formal sector of the economy will continue to flourish — at least in the absence of any unknown unknowns. | | THINK MORE That means India’s economy will continue to be the rare bright spot in the neighbourhood. Bangladesh’s over-reliance on one category of exports has hurt it; Sri Lanka has just wrangled a bailout from the International Monetary Fund; and Pakistan, already ravaged economically and politically, was inundated by floods that many describe as one-in-a-lifetime (a term that is being used with increasing frequency, pointing to the regularity with which the climate crisis is making its impact evident). The human and economic tragedy in Pakistan was built around three events, each of very low probability: one, the extreme heatwave that the country (and parts of India) saw earlier in the year which caused glaciers to melt (resulting in glacier lakes forming and a higher level of water in rivers); two, a low pressure from the Bay of Bengal that travelled across India without losing its strength; and three, extreme rainfall. | | KNOW Experts say it is unlikely that a stronger variant of the Sars-CoV-2 virus will emerge — but if one does emerge, it could disrupt everything all over again. Which is why it is important that everyone eligible to take a booster shot of the vaccine take one. On that front, India is a laggard. Only 12% of the 770 million people in the 18-60 years age-group have taken a booster shot. are Potemkin ones that exist merely to provide diplomas, The reasons for not doing so vary from lack of awareness to indifference to a desire to wait for new-age multi-valent vaccines. With research clearly pointing to waning immunity from two doses of the vaccine and prior infections, boosters are a must. | | LEARN Our science columnist Anirban Mahapatra’s columns appear frequently in this section — and the reason isn’t laziness on my part (I had three choices for this section, but had to go with Anirban’s because it is the coolest). “Does sunlight make men (but not women) eat more?” he asks in the latest edition of Scientifically Speaking. The answer is yes, and it involves ultraviolet radiation, an enzyme called ghrelin, and the hormone estrogen. | | | | READ MORE Ruining the Chambal sanctuary Problematics, our new weekly puzzles column (every Monday) Goa’s dilemma: to mine or not to India’s Anirban Lahiri moves to the LIV Series | | OUTSIDE “Someone with 3,000 followers is now a lobbyist,” says a person quoted in Wired’s story on a low-profile ad-tech start-up and its army of 700 influencers “peddling not products but ideologies”. The article is headlined “Meet the Lobbyist Next Door” and it is a rollicking (and worrying) read. | | WHAT I'M READING The greatest athlete who every walked the earth was a Native American from the Fox and Sac nation whose indigenous name translates as “Path Lit by Lightning”; who excelled at every sport he played; who was unfairly stripped of his well-deserved Olympic medals; and the rest of whose life played out to a tragic script that will not read strangely in this country. I am reading David Maraniss’s wonderful book on Jim Thorpe, aptly titled Path Lit By Lightning: The Life of Jim Thorpe. | | WHAT I’M LISTENING TO The National’s fourth album, Boxer. What’s not to like: Matt Berninger’s voice (it grows on you) and songwriting chops; the twin guitars of the Dessner twins; and Bryan Devendorf’s drumming (I’ve always disliked the way many contemporary bands treat percussion, as some sort of ancillary that can sometimes be layered on). It’s an old favourite, and those who have been reading the newsletter regularly will know which rabbit hole led me to it. | Please share your feedback with us What do you think about this newsletter? | | Were you forwarded this email? Did you stumble upon it online? Sign up here. | | | | | | Get the Hindustan Times app and read premium stories | | | | | | View in Browser | Privacy Policy | Contact us You received this email because you signed up for HT Newsletters or because it is included in your subscription. Copyright © HT Digital Streams. All Rights Reserved | | | | |
