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Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?
Author: Jennifer Ryan Woods. Originally Published: 3/4/2026.
Key Points
- FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
- Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company's best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
- Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to life, trading at a price it hasn't seen in nearly four years. The stock, now above $17, has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% jump in the last month.
The rally has been driven by strong earnings and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the momentum, the consensus 12‑month price target sits at just $12.25—nearly 30% below the current price. That gap raises the question: how much of FIGS' recovery is supported by fundamentals, and how much is momentum?
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Early investors in FIGS enjoyed quick gains after the company's May 2021 IPO priced at $22 per share; within a month the shares climbed to about $50. The COVID‑19 pandemic had boosted demand for medical apparel, but as the pandemic eased the shares reversed course and within a year fell below $8. In the years that followed FIGS mostly traded in the single digits, and after dipping below $4 in April 2025 the stock began another upward run.
Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally
Following steady gains after its Q1 and Q2 2025 reports, FIGS' Q3 2025 results, released Nov. 6, accelerated the rally. The quarter showed stronger‑than‑expected revenue growth, solid demand across core categories and healthy margins despite tariff headwinds.
The company also raised its full‑year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street responded favorably: the stock climbed more than 30% over the following week, and Zacks Research upgraded the shares to Strong Buy from Hold.
The momentum continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report on Feb. 26. The quarter delivered a 33% revenue increase and marked FIGS' strongest quarterly sales yet, topping $200 million. On the earnings call, management highlighted growth in the active customer base and higher average order values; the company also gained visibility by outfitting Team USA's medical team at the Winter Olympics.
Scrubwear—the company's core segment, accounting for more than three‑quarters of net revenue—grew 35%, while international sales rose 55%. The fourth quarter capped a solid year: net revenue for the full year reached a record $630 million, up 14% year‑over‑year. Despite tariff pressures that compressed gross margins, profitability remained strong, with full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding targets by more than 200 basis points.
Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook
FIGS issued an upbeat outlook for the year ahead, citing continued demand backed by growth in healthcare jobs, plans to expand into new international markets, prioritized growth initiatives across businesses and a continued stock buyback program.
For fiscal 2026, management expects net revenue growth of 10%–12% with improving profitability targets.
Analysts responded with a string of upgrades and target changes. Barclays moved to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp shifted to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 target, and Goldman Sachs moved its rating to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9.
FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets
FIGS' earnings momentum is the clear catalyst behind the push to four‑year highs. Shares began rising even before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release. After the results, the rally intensified: the stock gained 24% on the first trading day following the report and added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, well above Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and at or above many of the firms that recently raised their targets.
The disparity between bullish analyst commentary and relatively modest price targets suggests caution: analysts appear to appreciate FIGS' improving fundamentals but remain wary of the stock's valuation. At current levels, shares trade at a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 90, implying much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in.
There are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS. By contrast, lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU), a dominant player in lifestyle apparel, trades at a P/E of less than 12 (MarketBeat comparison). The bottom line: investors are cheering the turnaround, but skepticism remains about whether the stock can sustain its run or if a pullback is likely.
Don't Try to Catch These 3 Falling Knives
Reported by Dan Schmidt. First Published: 2/23/2026.
Key Points
- Its tempting to try to catch a falling knife, and there are have been plenty of stocks that rebounded after a 50% or 60% decline.
- However, most stocks that drop precipitously do so for a reason, and attempting to catch them only results in more losses.
- These three stocks all have brand recognition and past successes, but their recent earnings reports point to more downside ahead.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Trying to catch a falling knife can be tempting, especially if it's a company you know well. Many of the biggest winners over the last 20 years have suffered drawdowns of 40%, 50%, or even 60% over extended periods, only to roar back to new all-time highs months or years later.
But those are the stories we remember; it's easy to forget the formerly strong companies that suffered major drawdowns and never recovered. Yes, we're looking at you, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AMC). Today, we'll look at three companies that fit the latter category: falling knives facing serious headwinds you don't want to attempt to catch.
PayPal Holdings: Branded Checkout Bust Adds to Market Share Losses
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I Met Elon Musk "Face-to-Face"
During a private gathering of Wall Street elites, I was one of two people selected to speak with Elon personally.
As a result, my research now leads me to believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO on this date:
March 26, 2026. Circle it on your calendar.
I'm sharing an "access code" that lets anyone grab a pre-IPO stake before it happens. This is your invitation to the biggest wealth-building event of the decade.
It's hard to believe a company as ubiquitous as PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) could be facing such an existential challenge. A decade ago, PayPal's apps were a go-to for payments, and Venmo was on its way to becoming a verb.
Now, PayPal and Venmo often feel relegated to splitting restaurant checks or paying fantasy football dues. Point-of-sale wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay have been chipping away at PayPal's market share, and the company's recent earnings reinforced those concerns.
PayPal reported its Q4 2025 results on Feb. 3 and missed both top- and bottom-line estimates despite 4% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth.
Venmo and the Buy Now, Pay Later division each grew revenue by about 20%, but PayPal's branded online checkout stumbled in 2025, with just 1% YOY growth versus 6% the prior year. The company also made a sudden CEO change, replacing Alex Chriss with Enrique Lores.
PYPL shares plunged more than 20% after the earnings release, extending what is now roughly an 85% drawdown over five years. Technically, the picture is weak: the stock has failed to clear the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) since last July and trades well below both the 50- and 200-day SMAs. Despite spending much of the month in oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), PYPL has not bounced, suggesting further pain could be ahead.
Genuine Parts Company: Massive Earnings Miss Compounds Financial Troubles
Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC) is still dealing with the fallout from multiple financial headwinds, including the bankruptcy of a key vendor, First Brands Group.
That issue isn't the only pressure on the balance sheet. A disappointing earnings report on Feb. 17 made clear there's more trouble ahead for the auto-parts supplier.
The company's Q4 2025 earnings showed not only EPS and revenue misses but also significant pretax charges: $150 million related to First Brands and an additional $742 million from a pension settlement.
The miss wasn't solely attributable to one-time items either — operating margins turned negative after growing 3.3% in the same quarter a year earlier.
GPC shares dropped nearly 15% following the report and continued to decline in subsequent sessions, erasing all of the stock's 2026 gains in a matter of hours. The shares fell below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bearish. Genuine Parts will likely need to demonstrate a credible turnaround before the stock can recover.
Vulcan Materials Company: In Search of a Housing Revival
Vulcan Materials Co. (NYSE: VMC) released an earnings report this week that did little to instill confidence.
Despite strength across the industrials sector in 2026, Vulcan is lagging because the single-family housing market remains sluggish. The company sells materials such as gravel, sand and crushed stone to residential builders, and that end market is soft. The stock is up about 5% year-to-date, but the company's Q4 2025 earnings report painted a muted picture.
Vulcan reported EPS of $1.70 versus an expected $2.11 — nearly a 20% miss — and revenue also fell short ($1.91 billion versus the expected $1.95 billion). Guidance was tepid, calling for only 1%–3% growth in aggregate shipments.
With single-family housing sluggish, Vulcan is increasingly reliant on data center construction for demand. Those projects tend to use lower-grade materials than residential construction and offer different margin dynamics.
The earnings miss sent the stock down as much as 10% intraday, though it closed down just under 8%. The rally attempt stalled at the 50-day SMA; if that level now acts as resistance rather than support, it would be a bearish signal. The MACD's recent bearish crossover reinforces the possibility of further downside for VMC.
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