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Pfizer Pops on Q4 Results—But This May Be the Catalyst That Matters Most
Submitted by Chris Markoch. Published: 2/5/2026.
At a Glance
- Pfizer stock jumped after a beating on the top and bottom lines, but the rally may reflect more than just strong quarterly results and short-term GLP-1 excitement.
- Positive Phase 2b GLP-1 obesity data gives Pfizer optionality, though meaningful revenue from weight-loss drugs is still several years away.
- An expanding oncology pipeline and AI-driven R&D strategy could be the most overlooked long-term growth catalysts for PFE.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) the day after delivering a double beat in its fourth-quarter earnings report.
Revenue of $17.56 billion topped analysts' estimates of $16.93 billion. On the bottom line, Pfizer delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69, beating estimates of $0.57. Highlighting the report was Pfizer's announcement of positive topline results from the Phase 2b study for its lead GLP-1 drug candidate.
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PFE stock closed up 4% on Feb. 4 as analysts and investors digested the report.
The bullish thesis is that while GLP-1 headlines may drive near-term excitement, Pfizer's more durable upside is likely to come from its expanding oncology pipeline and its accelerating use of artificial intelligence across R&D. That story begins with the company's push into obesity, where it reported a notable clinical update alongside the quarter.
Pfizer Wants a Piece of the Weight-Loss Drug Pie
The weight-loss drug market is expanding quickly. Data projects the global GLP-1 market will grow from $62.2 billion in 2025 to $157 billion by 2035.
That represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% and helps explain why billions are flowing into the industry from companies looking to carve out market share.
For Pfizer, that opportunity comes from its lead GLP-1 candidate, MET-097i. The company reported results from its Phase 2b VESPER-3 study. The trial met its primary endpoint and showed a statistically significant, placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 12.3% at 28 weeks.
Pfizer also noted that patients continued to lose weight after transitioning from weekly to monthly dosing, with no plateau observed by the end of the 28-week period.
The Growth Driver Investors May Be Missing
Immediately after the report, conventional wisdom pointed to the positive clinical trial results as the driver of the stock's gain. That may be true, but investors should treat the reaction as a short-term sugar high.
While Pfizer's obesity candidate shows promise, it will take time for that to meaningfully affect the company's financials. The GLP-1 trade is expanding, and as Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) demonstrated in its earnings, the current leader isn't likely to cede its obesity-drug position anytime soon.
There are, however, additional reasons to be bullish on PFE—chiefly its oncology portfolio. Business Research Insights estimates the global oncology drugs market at approximately $264.92 billion in 2026, projected to climb to $648.08 billion by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of roughly 10.3%.
A Growing Pipeline Gives Pfizer Many Shots on Goal
As of late 2025, Pfizer had roughly 60 candidates in its product pipeline—each representing another opportunity to capture market share. The company's portfolio was significantly strengthened after its acquisition of Seagen in 2023.
Today, Pfizer's late-stage pipeline includes diverse approaches, such as Vepdegestrant, a next-generation targeted protein degrader (PROTAC), and atirmociclib, a selective CDK4 inhibitor, both being evaluated in later-stage trials for ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.
- Sigvotatug vedotin, an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), is in Phase 3 testing (e.g., Be6A LUNG-01) against metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, leveraging Pfizer's Seagen-acquired ADC expertise.
- Sasanlimab targets bladder cancer, while the bispecific PD-1xVEGF agent (PF-4404) is being tested in combination with Padcev to treat urothelial cancer—positioning these candidates for potential blockbuster status amid oncology growth.
Beyond individual assets, Pfizer's commitment to artificial intelligence (AI) is central to its strategy and increasingly essential across the biopharmaceutical sector.
Pfizer integrates AI across R&D through partnerships like Boltz for biomolecular modeling, XtalPi for molecular design, and Data4Cure for oncology data analytics—efforts that the company says can speed target identification by an estimated 50% with tools such as OncoScout. Internally, platforms like "Charlie" handle data mining, predictions, and content generation, while collaborations with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) help optimize discovery and manufacturing.
These AI efforts played a role in the company's rapid development of Paxlovid and underpin catalysts expected in 2026 across oncology and obesity. Pfizer is targeting $1.2 billion in savings by 2027 from efficiency gains tied to these initiatives.
Industry-wide, AI is projected to boost productivity by 35% to 45% by improving preclinical decision-making and trial design, making it a core competitive advantage rather than optional hype. Pfizer has positioned itself toward the forefront of AI adoption, which could provide meaningful benefits to investors over the medium and long term.
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