"McDonald's has become the most visible symbol of globalization in the world." ✍️ - Eric Schlosser (author of Fast-Food Nation) |
✅ U.S. equity markets ended slightly lower following a stronger-than-expected January jobs report. Robust hiring and a decline in the unemployment rate are reinforcing confidence that economic and earnings momentum can persist. ✅ The January nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations, showing stronger job growth, falling unemployment, and solid wage gains, while revisions and sector-specific trends painted a nuanced picture for the labor market and Fed policy. ✅ U.S. tariff collections surged more than 300% in January, helping reduce the federal deficit while raising stakes on a pending Supreme Court ruling that could affect the legality of duties and potential refunds. ✅ Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a major new stake in Meta, calling the stock “deeply discounted” as the fund bets on long-term growth from the company’s AI investments. ✅ McDonald’s surpassed quarterly earnings and revenue forecasts, with promotional campaigns and expanded value offerings driving strong same-store sales growth, particularly in the U.S. ✅ Actor James Van Der Beek, known for “Dawson’s Creek” and “Varsity Blues,” has died at 48 following a battle with colorectal cancer, with family and fans mourning his passing and celebrating his career. |
↘ Dow 50,121.40 - 0.13%
↘ Nasdaq 23,066.47 - 0.16%
↘ S&P 6,941.47 - 0.0049% |
Five Key Takeaways from January’s Jobs Report |
Image courtesy of Spencer Platt | Getty Images |
The January nonfarm payrolls report came in stronger than expected, topping Wall Street forecasts for both job growth and the unemployment rate. Here are the five main takeaways: Headline numbers exceeded expectations.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, well above the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, compared with expectations for 4.4%, helped by a surge of 528,000 in household employment. Wage growth and hours worked improved.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, both stronger than anticipated. The average workweek ticked up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours, a potential sign of improving productivity. Revisions painted a softer longer-term picture.
Annual benchmark revisions, aligned with Census data, showed that payroll growth from April 2024 through March 2025 was 898,000 lower than previously reported. November’s job count was revised down by 15,000 and December’s by 2,000. Over the final six months of 2025, the economy posted a net loss of 1,000 jobs. Hiring remained concentrated in health care.
Job gains were heavily skewed toward health-related industries, which added 82,000 positions across ambulatory services, hospitals, and nursing and residential care facilities. Social assistance contributed another 42,000 jobs. Construction was the only other sector showing notable strength, adding 33,000 positions. Markets pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Following the report, traders scaled back bets on near-term Federal Reserve easing. Futures markets priced in just an 8% chance of a rate cut in March, with the next likely move not expected until at least June, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. President Donald Trump celebrated the report in a Truth Social post, calling the jobs numbers “far greater than expected” and arguing that strong economic performance should lead to significantly lower borrowing costs for the U.S. |
Tariff Revenue Jumps Over 300% as U.S. Awaits Supreme Court Ruling |
Image courtesy of Tama2u/Shutterstock. |
Tariff collections surged in January, helping narrow the federal deficit and underscoring the stakes of a pending Supreme Court decision that could have major implications for U.S. fiscal policy. The Treasury Department reported that customs duties totaled $30 billion for the month. That brings tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date to $124 billion—up 304% compared with the same period in 2025. President Donald Trump introduced the tariffs in April 2025, imposing a broad levy on all goods and services entering the United States, along with additional “reciprocal” tariffs targeting specific countries. While the administration has since negotiated adjustments with trading partners—rolling back some of the steepest measures while maintaining a tough stance—tariff revenue has remained elevated. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in November challenging the legal authority used to justify the tariffs. A ruling had been expected in January but has yet to be issued. A decision against the administration could potentially require the government to refund duties already collected, raising concerns within the White House about the fiscal impact. For now, the influx of tariff revenue has helped ease the pace of deficit growth. In January, the fourth month of the fiscal year, the federal deficit totaled approximately $95 billion, a 26% decline from the same month a year earlier. Year to date, the deficit stands at $697 billion, down 17% from the comparable period in fiscal 2025. Adjusted for calendar differences, the reduction is closer to 21%. Despite the improvement, interest costs on the $38.6 trillion national debt remain a significant strain. Net interest payments reached $76 billion in January, trailing only Medicare, Social Security, and broader health-care spending. For the fiscal year so far, gross interest payments have climbed to $426.5 billion, up from $392.2 billion during the same period last year. |
Bill Ackman Discloses Meta Stake, Calls Shares ‘Deeply Discounted’ |
Image courtesy of David A.Grogan—CNBC/NBCU/Photo Bank via Getty Images |
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management unveiled a significant new investment in Meta on Wednesday. In its annual investor presentation, the hedge fund said it believes Meta’s current share price fails to fully reflect the company’s long-term potential in artificial intelligence, describing the stock as “deeply discounted” for what it considers one of the world’s premier businesses. The position accounted for about 10% of Pershing’s capital at the end of 2025. Meta shares have declined 16% over the past year amid investor concerns about the company’s heavy spending on AI initiatives. In its January fourth-quarter earnings report, Meta projected AI-related capital expenditures of $115 billion to $135 billion for 2026. Pershing pushed back on those concerns, stating that the market is underestimating the long-term benefits of Meta’s AI investments. The fund also noted that Meta currently trades at roughly 22 times projected earnings over the next 12 months—a valuation it views as attractive given the company’s expected AI-driven growth. By comparison, Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia trade at higher forward price-to-earnings multiples. Pershing built the Meta stake in the fourth quarter. The firm added positions in Amazon, Hertz, and Meta during 2025, with the Amazon and Hertz investments previously disclosed. In 2025, Pershing outperformed the S&P 500, posting a 20.9% increase in net asset value compared with the index’s 17% gain. |
McDonald’s Tops Earnings Estimates as Value Strategy Drives Traffic |
Image courtesy of www.cafe.se |
McDonald’s reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue on Wednesday, signaling that its renewed focus on value is resonating with customers. “By listening to customers and taking action, we have improved traffic and strengthened our value and affordability scores,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement. Shares rose 2% in extended trading following the results. Quarterly results vs. expectations (LSEG): Adjusted earnings per share: $3.12 vs. $3.05 expected Revenue: $7 billion vs. $6.84 billion expected The fast-food giant posted fourth-quarter net income of $2.16 billion, or $3.03 per share, up from $2.02 billion, or $2.80 per share, in the same period a year earlier. Excluding restructuring and other charges, earnings came in at $3.12 per share. Revenue increased 10% to $7 billion. Global same-store sales rose 5.7%, surpassing Wall Street’s estimate of 3.9%, according to StreetAccount. Growth was driven largely by strength in the U.S., where same-store sales climbed 6.8%. A year earlier, domestic comparable sales had fallen 1.4%, hurt by an E. coli outbreak that dampened traffic. McDonald’s credited strong promotional campaigns—such as its Grinch-themed meal and Monopoly promotion—for boosting visits and spending. The company also expanded its value offerings, including the relaunch of Extra Value Meals, which provide roughly a 15% discount on combo purchases. |
James Van Der Beek, ‘Dawson’s Creek’ Star, Dies at 48 After Cancer Battle |
Image courtesy of NBC News |
James Van Der Beek, best known for his roles in “Dawson’s Creek” and “Varsity Blues,” has died at the age of 48, his publicist confirmed. His wife, Kimberly, also shared the news in a heartfelt message on social media. Van Der Beek revealed in November 2024 that he had been diagnosed with colorectal cancer. No cause of death has been publicly disclosed. In a post on Instagram, Kimberly wrote, “Our beloved James David Van Der Beek passed peacefully this morning. He met his final days with courage, faith, and grace. There is much to share regarding his wishes, love for humanity and the sacredness of time. Those days will come. For now we ask for peaceful privacy as we grieve our loving husband, father, son, brother, and friend.” His publicist, Whitney Tancred, confirmed his passing to CBS News. Speaking to People magazine in 2024, Van Der Beek said he was “feeling good” despite his diagnosis and was “taking steps to resolve it,” though he did not provide details about his treatment. In November 2025, he announced he was auctioning personal memorabilia from his career to help cover medical expenses. Van Der Beek rose to fame portraying Dawson Leery on the hit series “Dawson’s Creek,” which aired from 1998 to 2003. He later starred in the 1999 film “Varsity Blues” and continued working steadily in television and film, including a self-parodying role on “Don’t Trust the B---- in Apartment 23” in 2012. He was married to actress Heather McComb from 2003 to 2009. In 2010, he married Kimberly Brook, a business consultant. The couple had six children together. Van Der Beek had previously spoken about the miscarriages his wife experienced. Colorectal cancer has increasingly affected Americans under 50 in recent years and is now a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in that age group. According to the American Cancer Society, symptoms can include blood in the stool, changes in bowel habits, abdominal pain, bloating, unexplained weight loss, vomiting, and fatigue. |
📉 ON THE MOVE AND NOTABLES 📈 |
✔️ The U.S. dollar is firmer, while bond prices are under pressure as investors scale back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. ✔️ After being delayed by the government shutdown, the January payrolls report came in well above expectations. The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the 50,000 forecast and marking the strongest monthly gain in a year. As in recent months, health care accounted for a large share of new positions. ✔️ Ford (F) gained after reporting earnings that fell short of expectations, though revenue exceeded estimates and forward guidance appeared solid. ✔️ Cisco (CSCO) reported fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped estimates while the company's April quarter revenue outlook came in above views. Cisco stock fell on the news. ✔️ AppLovin (APP) reported fourth quarter EPS of $3.24, $0.28 better than the analyst estimate of $2.96. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.66B versus the consensus estimate of $1.61B. ✔️ Shopify (SHOP) surged after beating revenue estimates and forecasting solid first-quarter growth. The company also announced a new $2 billion share buyback program. ✔️ Vertiv (VRT), a data center infrastructure partner to Nvidia (NVDA), jumped following an earnings beat and upbeat guidance. Nvidia shares were little changed. ✔️ Mattel (MAT) tumbled ahead of the open after fourth-quarter sales growth came in below expectations and guidance disappointed. ✔️ T-Mobile (TMUS) slipped as earnings per share missed estimates, though revenue met forecasts. ✔️ Kraft Heinz (KHC) fell. While earnings topped estimates and revenue met expectations, weaker guidance weighed on shares. The company also said it is pausing plans for a corporate split, noting that its challenges are “fixable and within our control.” ✔️ Lyft (LYFT) dropped after revenue fell short of Wall Street projections. First-quarter bookings guidance met consensus, and gross bookings rose 19% in the prior quarter. ✔️ Cloudflare (NET) climbed on stronger-than-expected results. ✔️ Humana (HUM) declined despite beating earnings and revenue estimates. ✔️ Moderna (MRNA) slid after the FDA declined to review its application for an experimental flu vaccine, according to CNBC. ✔️ Mining stocks advanced as gold and silver resumed their rallies. ✔️ Crude oil (/CL) rose 1.5% amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. ✔️ Financial shares edged lower after fintech platform Altruist unveiled a new AI-powered tax planning tool, CNBC reported. ✔️ Bitcoin (/BTC) hovered just above $67,000. |
💲What Else to Watch This Week 💲 |
🟢 February 12: January existing home sales, and expected earnings from Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Brookfield (BN), Airbnb (ABNB), and Coinbase Global (COIN). 🟢 February 13: January CPI and January core CPI and expected earnings from Enbridge (ENB) and Moderna (MRNA). 🟢 February 16: U.S. markets closed for President's Day. 🟢 February 17: Expected earnings from Medtronic (MDT), Constellation Energy (CEG), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW). 🟢 February 18: January housing starts and building permits, January industrial production, FOMC meeting minutes, and expected earnings from Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and eBay (EBAY). |
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