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More Reading from MarketBeat.com Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Summary - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have tumbled as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains more than 90% below its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Wall Street veteran reveals #1 investment trend of 2026 (not AI)
Will you potentially make money or lose money in the U.S. stock market in 2026? According to the 50-year Wall Street legend who invented one of Wall Street's most popular buying and selling indicators – the answer has nothing to do with AI, quantum computing, or cryptos. Instead, it all comes down to the #1 stock he recommends you BUY now… And the #1 stock he recommends you SELL now. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a path for Moderna to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger cost controls. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That figure is a far cry from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult to see sustained growth coming from COVID treatments alone. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start generating meaningful revenue in 2027. That would be a major catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. Securing approval will be important if Moderna is to have a realistic shot at its 2028 goal. However, seasonal vaccine markets offer limited long-term growth. For investors to become truly optimistic about Moderna again, the company will likely need successful outcomes in areas beyond seasonal vaccines — namely oncology and rare diseases. Moderna has several candidates in those categories with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran; the company expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three data possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, significant uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have actually bottomed is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no approved therapies. The federal government has also scaled back investments in some mRNA development programs that overlap with Moderna's focus, which has heightened concern about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and positive readouts from non-seasonal drug candidates — would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
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