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Additional Reading from MarketBeat.com Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Some analysts are revisiting historical monetary resets and the role gold has played when governments faced large debt imbalances.
A new free report examines how gold was previously revalued to support national balance sheets, why recent comments from policymakers and investors have renewed interest in this topic, and what individuals may want to understand about protecting long-term savings during periods of monetary change. Download the free report here With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a path for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The recent spike in Moderna stock followed the company raising revenue guidance and reporting better-than-expected cost-management metrics. It now expects $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Moderna also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates, implying non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of about $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion less than the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million derived from COVID vaccines — a far cry from the $7.2 billion the company generated in a single quarter in late 2021. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth based solely on its COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first year it captures the full-year benefit of these deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to record about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, that product could begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Adding a second seasonal product would be a major catalyst and is important to the company's 2028 goal. However, seasonal markets typically offer limited long-term growth. For investors to become truly enthusiastic about Moderna, the company will likely need success in non-seasonal areas such as oncology or rare diseases, where approval would materially expand its addressable market. Moderna has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most notable is its personalized cancer candidate, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with potential Phase III data later that year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no marketed products. Regulatory and political headwinds have also added to investor concern. The recent HHS decision to wind down certain mRNA development investments has heightened trepidation about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than a buy for the risk-averse. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing a stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and demonstrable progress in non-seasonal pipelines — would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
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