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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
Summary - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been pummeled as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. Jerome Powell says gold is not money. The Fed says inflation is under control and the dollar is strong. But look at what they do. Central banks bought more gold last year than any time since 1967. China dumped $100 billion in U.S. debt, then bought gold. Poland, Hungary, Singapore, and Turkey are all loading up. In 2022, the U.S. froze Russia's money and showed the world that assets can be seized. Now major nations want out. There's only one asset no one can freeze: gold. Get the name and ticker of one stock positioned for this shift. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a path for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost management. The company said it expects $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. It also forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That guidance would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses between $5 billion and $5.2 billion for 2025, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That compares with peak quarterly revenue of $7.2 billion in late 2021. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to achieve sustainable growth relying solely on COVID treatments. Moderna projects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, citing repeatable booster demand from high‑risk individuals and seniors. The company also points to strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia; 2026 will be the first full year to benefit from these agreements. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high‑risk populations and pursuing government deals could help establish a revenue base moving forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non‑Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; that candidate could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Securing approval would be a major catalyst and is important to the company's 2028 goal. Still, investors will likely want Moderna to succeed in areas beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long‑term growth, so while vaccines could create a revenue floor, approvals in oncology or rare diseases are probably necessary for durable upside. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy intismeran; the company expects five‑year Phase II data in early 2026, with a potential Phase III readout in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait‑and‑See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID‑19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain. The company's long‑term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration also curtailed some government support for mRNA development, winding down investments in this technology, which has increased concerns about funding and regulatory headwinds. For now, Moderna remains a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Stabilization in COVID‑19 vaccine demand would be a key prerequisite to adopting a more bullish long‑term view on the stock.
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