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This Month's Exclusive Content Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is ReboundingAuthor: Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/9/2026. 
In Brief - Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a disastrous 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a much brighter note. To the chagrin of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), Constellation delivered a total return of -36% last year. Under Warren Buffett, Berkshire initiated a position in Constellation during Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Berkshire held 13.4 million Constellation shares, valued near $1.8 billion at the time. General weakness in the beer market and among Constellation's customer base contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the difficult environment it faces. Note that the firm's fiscal year runs several quarters ahead of the calendar year. SpaceX just announced it is rapidly repositioning 4,400 Starlink satellites into lower Earth orbit. While the official explanation points to safety and debris concerns, the move comes days after China labeled Starlink a national security threat, raising serious questions about what's really happening behind the scenes.
If this escalation in space is an early warning signal, most investors won't react until markets already feel the impact. One analyst has updated his playbook for how to protect capital if geopolitical tensions accelerate. See the full briefing and his 3-step plan here As of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares were up more than 7% in 2026. The stock has now rebounded roughly 16% since hitting a 2025 low near $128 in November. The firm's latest earnings report also sent shares up 5.3%. Let's break down Constellation's most recent results to update the view on the stock. Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom-Line Beat In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, a decline of 10% but about $52 million ahead of analysts' expectations. The consumer staples company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, roughly 6% below last year but well above the consensus estimate of $2.63 (which implied a 19% drop). The company's beer segment, which accounts for about 90% of revenue, saw sales fall 1%. That decline was smaller than the broader beer category, allowing Constellation to gain market share. Even in a weak backdrop, Constellation's beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026, Constellation led the beer category in dollar share gains — a trend that also held in FY2025. Despite lower sales, the beer segment's operating margin rose about 10 basis points, reflecting solid cost management. What weighed on total growth was the Wine and Spirits segment, where sales fell 51%. Much of that decline resulted from Constellation's divestment of SVEDKA vodka and part of its wine portfolio; excluding those impacts, Wine and Spirits sales fell about 7%. On a company-wide basis and applying the same exclusions, sales were down roughly 2%, far better than the reported -10% figure. Overall, Constellation's quarter looked stronger when adjusting for portfolio changes. Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ Could Have Room to Run Trading around $148, Constellation has only partially recovered from its 2025 low near $128. That low wasn't just last year's bottom; it was the stock's weakest level since April 2020, shortly after the March COVID-19 market crash. In other words, Constellation is rebounding from a multi-year trough rather than a brief dip — a setup that could allow for further upside if the recovery continues. Berkshire Buys and Price Targets Bolster the Bull Case Berkshire bought more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025, a quarter when the stock's lowest closing price was $158. That price is roughly 7% above the stock's current trading level, meaning Berkshire likely paid a premium to today's price for part of its stake. Since then, Berkshire has added to its Constellation holdings, signaling continued confidence despite the stock's declines. That institutional backing supports the view that there may still be significant upside. Wall Street analysts also see upside: the MarketBeat consensus price target sits near $182, implying roughly 23% upside from current levels. Still, the beer industry faces questions. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol — the lowest share on record. But that percentage has fallen to similar levels before and later rebounded, suggesting the trend may be more cyclical than structural. If drinking rates recover, it would be a significant tailwind for Constellation. Combined with the company's track record of beer segment share gains and its valuation, Constellation's outlook currently skews to the upside.
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