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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 1/20/2026. 
Article Highlights - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Amazon has quietly poured $144 million into a secretive AI chip company, and committed to buying a staggering $650 million of their product. Why? Because this obscure startup holds the key to unleashing the full potential of Nvidia's revolutionary Blackwell chip. Discover the company at the heart of the AI arms race. With the stock deeply discounted and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The surge in Moderna stock followed an announcement that the company raised its revenue guidance and highlighted improved cost management. For 2026, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Moderna also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below past estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2026 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a far cry from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna, making it difficult to see sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic supply agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year to benefit from those partnerships. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in U.K. sales in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna projects that a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost cuts can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. A second successful seasonal product would be an important catalyst and could help create a revenue floor, but approval is essential to make the 2028 target realistic. However, seasonal markets have limited long-term growth potential. For investors to regain real enthusiasm, Moderna likely needs success in non-seasonal areas such as oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates in those categories with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three results possible late in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no approved drugs. Policy shifts have also added concern. The Trump administration has been critical of mRNA technology and is winding down certain government investments in the mRNA space, which raises questions about future support and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to monitor. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, reflecting lingering skepticism. A clear stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand or meaningful clinical successes outside seasonal vaccines would be key prerequisites for becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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