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This Month's Exclusive Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when its shares rose more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains more than 90% below its all-time high — even after the recent rebound. With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there a path for Moderna to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The jump in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger-than-expected cost management. For 2025, Moderna now expects $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 at about $5 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines — a steep decline from late 2021, when the company posted $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization reported that 67% of the world's population had received a complete primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients. That makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustainable growth based solely on COVID products. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and older adults. The company also has strategic government partnerships in Canada, the U.K., and Australia, and 2026 will be the first full year to reflect those agreements. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government deals could provide a revenue foundation as the company transitions. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently reported Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, that product could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be an important catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. However, seasonal markets alone are unlikely to provide long-term growth. To rekindle investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need clinical success outside seasonal vaccines — notably in oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026 and possible Phase 3 data by late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no marketed products. Policy shifts have also added concern. The Trump administration was critical of mRNA-focused programs and took steps toward winding down certain government investments in the space, which has heightened unease about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Investors will likely want to see stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, continued cost discipline, and positive clinical readouts outside seasonal vaccines before becoming more constructive on Moderna's long-term outlook.
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