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Special Report Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is ReboundingAuthor: Leo Miller. Posted: 1/9/2026. 
Key Points - Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a disastrous 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a much more positive note. To the chagrin of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), Constellation delivered a total return of -36% last year. Prior to Warren Buffett's retirement, Berkshire initiated a position in Constellation during Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Berkshire held 13.4 million Constellation shares, valued near $1.8 billion at the time. Weakness in the beer market and among Constellation's customers contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the challenging environment it faces. Note: the company's fiscal year runs several quarters ahead of the calendar year. Just like Microsoft and Adobe rode the software wave in Web 1.0, RAD Intel is riding the AI software wave in 2025. Their product helps brands instantly find the right audience and message using AI – solving the #1 waste in marketing: misfired ad spend.
Already trusted by a who's-who of Fortune 1000 brands and leading global agencies – with recurring seven-figure partnerships in place. With a Nasdaq ticker reserved, $RADI, it's early – but very real. $0.85 Won't Last – Secure Your Shares Now. However, as of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares are up more than 7% in 2026. The stock has rebounded roughly 16% since hitting a 2025 low near $128 in November. The firm's latest earnings report pushed shares up another 5.3%. Below, we break down Constellation's most recent results to provide an updated view of the stock. Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom-Line Beat In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion. This was a 10% decline but exceeded analysts' expectations by about $52 million. The consumer staples company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, down roughly 6% year-over-year but comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.63 (which implied a 19% drop). Constellation's beer segment, which accounts for around 90% of revenue, had sales decline 1%. That smaller decline versus the broader beer industry allowed Constellation to gain market share. Amid a weak backdrop, the company's beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026 it led the beer category in dollar share gains, and the trend held in FY2025 as well. Despite the sales decline, the beer segment's operating margin rose by 10 basis points, reflecting effective cost management. Where growth was most pressured was the Wine and Spirits segment, which reported a 51% sales decline—largely due to Constellation's divestment of SVEDKA vodka and part of its wine portfolio. Excluding those items, Wine and Spirits sales fell about 7%. On a company-wide pro forma basis excluding those divestments, sales were down roughly 2%, far better than the reported -10% figure. Taken together, the adjusted results suggest Constellation performed reasonably well during the quarter. Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ May Have Significant Upside Trading around $148, Constellation has only recovered modestly from its 2025 low near $128. That low was not only the stock's weakest level last year; it was its lowest since April 2020—shortly after the COVID-19 market crash in March of that year. In other words, Constellation is bouncing back from a historic drawdown rather than just a short-term dip. That context implies there could be meaningful runway left if the recovery continues. Berkshire's Buying and Analyst Targets Support the Case Berkshire bought more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025. During that quarter the stock's lowest closing price was $158, which is roughly 7% above the approximately $148 price today. Since then, Berkshire has continued to add to its stake, signaling ongoing conviction in the company despite the stock's pullback. Wall Street analysts also see upside: the MarketBeat consensus price target of about $182 implies roughly 23% upside from current levels. That potential is balanced by real questions for the beer industry. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol—the lowest share on record. Historically, however, that share has fallen and rebounded, suggesting the recent weakness may be cyclical rather than structural. If consumption recovers, it would be a tailwind for Constellation. Couple the company's track record of beer segment share gains with its valuation and analyst targets, and Constellation's outlook currently skews to the upside.
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