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This Month's Exclusive Story Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Article Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plunged as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. A former hedge fund manager known for cutting through market noise is briefly opening access to his flagship trading strategy. In a short demo, he explains how his "One Ticker" approach works — and how readers can access the full service for a year at a steep discount. Watch the brief demo here With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, could Moderna shares find new life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and tighter cost forecasts. For 2025, Moderna said it expects roughly $1.9 billion in revenue — about $100 million above its previous midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. Non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 are expected to be $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, the company expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That compares with the peak of late 2021, when the company recorded $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients. That makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth based on COVID treatments alone. Still, Moderna projects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full benefit of those agreements. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could help establish a firmer revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, together with cost reductions, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and commercialization of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst toward the firm's 2028 goal. But seasonal markets alone are unlikely to provide substantial long-term growth. To rekindle strong investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need success in non-seasonal categories such as oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with potential Phase 3 data later in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed. Long-term upside largely depends on winning regulatory approvals in clinical areas where Moderna currently has no approved medicines. The federal government has also moved to scale back some mRNA development funding, winding down investments in the technology Moderna specializes in, which has heightened concerns about future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies roughly 25% downside from current levels. A stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand would be a key prerequisite for becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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