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This Week's Featured Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Written by Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been heavily discounted as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. While market uncertainty could send some of America's most popular stocks crashing down even further in 2026 …
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To learn their names and ticker symbols for FREE … Click here NOW — before it's too late. With the stock deeply depressed and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The rally followed Moderna's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and tighter-than-expected cost projections. For 2025, the company now expects about $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Management also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That would leave non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline year-over-year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to fall to between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Right now, essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That pales beside late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received a complete primary COVID-19 vaccine series. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential vaccine recipients, making it difficult for Moderna to return to sustainable growth based solely on COVID products. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic government partnerships with Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of these agreements. Notably, the firm expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government deals could establish a more predictable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost cuts, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst and improve the company's chances of meeting its 2028 goal. However, to rekindle broader investor enthusiasm, Moderna likely needs success beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets can provide a revenue floor, but they rarely deliver robust long-term growth. The company will need meaningful wins in areas such as oncology or rare diseases to change its trajectory. Moderna has several candidates in these categories with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with potential Phase III data later in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain. Long-term upside depends heavily on approvals in therapeutic areas where Moderna currently has no approved products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the BARDA program that supported mRNA development — a factor that heightens concern about future support and regulatory momentum. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A visible stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, plus positive non-seasonal clinical readouts, would be important prerequisites before becoming more constructive on the company's long-term prospects.
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