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Special Report Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, despite the recent bounce. While President Trump's official salary is $400,000 per year... his tax returns reveal he's been collecting up to $250,000 PER MONTH from one hidden source. Until recently, most Americans couldn't touch the type of investment that makes up this investment. But thanks to Executive Order 14330, that just changed. If you love investing in disruptive new companies... Discover how to invest in the fund Trump uses to collect this income >> With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger-than-expected cost management. For 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance — and forecasted operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. That guidance would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That is a steep decline from late 2021 when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential demand. That makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster sales to high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, Moderna expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could create a steadier revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost cuts can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and successful commercialization of that vaccine would be an important catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. However, seasonal markets alone are unlikely to provide long-term growth. For investors to regain genuine enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need successes in non-seasonal categories — notably oncology and rare diseases — where it currently has no approved therapies. The company has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026 and possible Phase 3 data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, significant uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in areas where it currently has no marketed products. The federal government has also scaled back some investments in mRNA development, winding down certain programs, which has added to concerns about the pathway for future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A clear stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand or meaningful progress in non-seasonal clinical programs would be key prerequisites to becoming more bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
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