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Featured Story from MarketBeat Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?By Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/19/2026. In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) just made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Despite the strong bounce, Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of the Jan. 16 close, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high in August 2021. With the stock in such a deep hole, and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is it possible Moderna shares have life? All data are as of the Jan. 16 close unless otherwise indicated. MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock came as the company announced better-than-expected revenue guidance and pointed to stronger-than-anticipated cost management. For 2025, the company now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above the midpoint of its prior guidance. It also sees operating expenses coming in roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put the firm's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, management expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Recent algorithm alerts have flagged stocks like Nuburu, MSS, and Rebel Holdings ahead of sharp moves — including triple-digit gains in a short time frame. These signals all came from Tim Bohen's new system, called The Monday Algo, which scans the market each week for early breakout setups.
Now, the algorithm is highlighting a new low-priced stock heading into Monday. While no trade is guaranteed, Tim is breaking down why this setup stands out — and how he and his students approach these Monday momentum opportunities. See the latest Monday Algo setup here What You Need to Know - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
Nearly all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That is a steep decline from late 2021, when the company reported as much as $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received a complete primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients through which Moderna can generate sales. That makes it difficult for the company to achieve sustainable growth from COVID treatments alone. Moderna says COVID revenues are stabilizing. For 2026, the company expects up to 10% sales growth, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships with Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. 2026 is the first year Moderna will see the full-year benefit of those agreements; the firm expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government alone. Targeting high-risk populations and cultivating government contracts could establish a more predictable revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can lead to breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, that program could begin contributing financially in 2027. Approval would be an important second seasonal product and a meaningful step toward the company's 2028 goal. But to get genuinely excited about Moderna, the company needs wins outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth, so vaccines may provide only a revenue floor. The company's long-term upside depends on approvals in oncology or rare-disease programs where it currently has no marketed products. Moderna has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran: management expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026 and potential Phase 3 data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales will truly bottom is far from guaranteed, and the company's long-term future depends heavily on approvals in clinical areas where it has no proven track record. The federal government has also wound down some investments in mRNA development, winding down government investments in the technology that underpins much of Moderna's pipeline — a factor that adds to the risk around future approvals. For now, Moderna is an interesting stock to watch. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand would be a prerequisite for a more bullish view on its long-term prospects. Notably, the MarketBeat consensus price target near $30 implies roughly 25%+ downside from current levels.
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