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This Month's Featured Content Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
What You Need to Know - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines again in January 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. SpaceX just announced it is rapidly repositioning 4,400 Starlink satellites into lower Earth orbit. While the official explanation points to safety and debris concerns, the move comes days after China labeled Starlink a national security threat, raising serious questions about what's really happening behind the scenes.
If this escalation in space is an early warning signal, most investors won't react until markets already feel the impact. One analyst has updated his playbook for how to protect capital if geopolitical tensions accelerate. See the full briefing and his 3-step plan here With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there a path for Moderna shares to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost-management metrics. Moderna now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue in 2025 — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. The company also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below earlier estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a steep decline from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients and makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustainable growth based solely on its COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also highlighted strategic government partnerships with Canada, the U.K., and Australia; 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of these deals. Notably, the firm expects about $200 million in U.K. sales in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could provide a more stable revenue base moving forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Adding a second seasonal product would be a meaningful catalyst and help establish a revenue floor — but approval is essential for the 2028 target to be realistic. For investors to regain enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth, so the company needs progress in areas such as oncology and rare diseases to drive sustainable upside. Moderna has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: the company anticipates five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with potential Phase Three results by late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is far from guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed out, and the company's long-term prospects rest heavily on approvals in therapeutic areas where it currently has no approved drugs. Additionally, the Trump administration's decision to wind down certain government investments in mRNA development has heightened concerns about future policy support and regulatory dynamics for the technology Moderna specializes in. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than one to buy aggressively. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels, underscoring the cautious outlook. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and positive non-seasonal readouts would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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