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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Author: Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
In Brief - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been punished as COVID-19's relevance waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Do NOT buy gold until you see this
A major announcement from President Trump could send certain gold stocks soaring 10x… 20x… even 50x higher in the blink of an eye. Get the details here. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The surge in Moderna shares followed the company's announcement of stronger-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost projections. For 2025, Moderna now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previous midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion reduction from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Still, nearly all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a far cry from late 2021, when Moderna generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. Vaccine penetration also limits growth: by the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated 67% of the world's population had completed a primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential customers. That said, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also cites strategic government partnerships — with Canada, the U.K., and Australia — and 2026 will be the first full year benefiting from those contracts. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government deals could help establish a revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost cuts can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; if approved in 2026, that product could begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. A second seasonal product would be an important catalyst and could help create a revenue floor. However, seasonal markets alone don't offer much long-term growth. To re-ignite investor enthusiasm, Moderna likely needs success outside seasonal vaccines — namely in oncology and rare disease programs where it currently has no approved therapies. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase 2 follow-up data in early 2026 and potential Phase 3 results later in the year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It is not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in new clinical areas. Regulatory and policy shifts add to the caution. The current administration has moved to wind down certain government investments in mRNA development, which increases the risk and complexity of future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and meaningful positive readouts from non-seasonal programs — would be prerequisites to take a more bullish view on the company's long-term prospects.
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