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Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?
By Leo Miller. Posted: 1/20/2026.
Summary
- Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years.
Moderna shares have fallen sharply as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains more than 90% below its all-time high, even after the recent bounce.
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With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there life left in Moderna shares?
MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet
The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's updated revenue guidance and improved cost projections. For 2025, Moderna now expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance.
It also forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below prior estimates.
That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about $2 billion less than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027.
Almost all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines.
Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a steep decline from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter.
As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to generate sales, making it difficult for the company to achieve sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments.
Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat booster demand from high‑risk individuals and seniors.
The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full benefit of those partnerships. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high‑risk populations and securing government contracts could help establish a steadier revenue base.
MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts
Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; that treatment could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be a major catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection and helping the firm toward its 2028 goal.
However, seasonal vaccines alone probably won't rekindle widespread investor enthusiasm. Seasonal markets offer limited long‑term growth, so Moderna will likely need success in non‑seasonal areas — notably oncology and rare diseases — to change its long‑term trajectory.
The company has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The lead program is its personalized cancer candidate, intismeran: Moderna expects five‑year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with Phase 3 data possible in late 2026.
Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait‑and‑See Stock
Overall, uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID‑19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is still an open question.
More broadly, the company's long‑term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products.
The federal government has also scaled back some investments in mRNA development, as highlighted in recent HHS communications, which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals.
For now, Moderna is a stock to watch rather than a clear buy. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels.
Stabilization in COVID‑19 vaccine demand and positive readouts from non‑seasonal programs would be key prerequisites for becoming more bullish on the stock's long‑term prospects.
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