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Today's Bonus Story Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss DrugsWritten by Jordan Chussler. Published 12/16/2025. 
Key Points - The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24% and 25%, respectively, over the same period. A former hedge fund manager known for cutting through market noise is briefly opening access to his flagship trading strategy. In a short demo, he explains how his "One Ticker" approach works — and how readers can access the full service for a year at a steep discount. Watch the brief demo here Despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a roughly $10 billion deal, the stock has only gained about 0.23% since then. The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is again looking to expand its role in the weight loss drug market, with management and shareholders hoping that doing so can help recoup revenue lost as demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines waned. Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Deal With YaoPharma On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight loss pill that is in early-stage development. The pill is being developed to work similarly to Wegovy, Novo Nordisk's game-changing injectable. News of a yet-to-be-approved drug may not move the stock in the short term, but it underscores Pfizer's commitment and momentum in the obesity treatment market. Under the deal, Pfizer will pay a $150 million upfront fee to YaoPharma's parent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap. Pfizer could also pay up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if the program advances, plus royalties on sales if the drug is approved. Those milestone payments are contingent on YaoPharma successfully navigating early-stage trials, after which Pfizer would take control of later-stage development. Pfizer also plans to run combination studies—currently in mid-stage development—pairing the Chinese company's pill with Pfizer's own GIP receptor-targeting agent. That dual-target approach mirrors what Eli Lilly has done with its weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, which target both GLP-1 and GIP pathways. Pfizer Is Positioning for the Future of the Weight Loss Market The deal highlights how aggressively Pfizer's leadership is pursuing a larger, long-term role in the GLP-1 and broader obesity treatment market. Over the past month, Pfizer has shown a willingness to invest roughly $10.1 billion in pursuit of that goal, signaling its view of a rapidly growing industry. Market forecasts from Grand View Research estimate the GLP-1 weight loss drug market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from under $14 billion this year to about $48.84 billion by 2030. Grand View Research also found North America accounts for the largest revenue share—more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While alternatives such as lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery exist, GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option for many physicians and patients. Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend Shareholders are hoping Pfizer's push into the weight loss market pays off after the stock has declined more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that pullback stems from a drop in COVID vaccine sales, which drove revenue growth from more than 95% at the end of 2021 to a decline of more than 41% by the end of 2023. Last year, Pfizer's revenue rebounded modestly, rising nearly 7%. The stock's dividend has also helped offset some investor concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65%—$1.72 per share annually. That payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock attractive to income investors despite questions about its 100% payout ratio. For investors focused on income and willing to take a speculative position on the GLP-1 market, Pfizer can continue to provide steady cash returns while it pursues growth in obesity therapies. Growth-oriented investors, however, may have limited patience for another year of lackluster performance. Analysts' average 12-month price target implies roughly 10% upside from the current price, and the consensus rating remains Hold. Meanwhile, short interest has risen as the stock attracts more bearish bets. Currently, about $3.58 billion of the float is shorted—nearly 84% higher than PFE's short position at the end of January 2025.
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