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For Your Education and Enjoyment Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss DrugsWritten by Jordan Chussler. Published 12/16/2025. 
Key Points - The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis, and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24%, and 25%, respectively, over the same period. A new generation of AI is expected to come online in early 2026, and some analysts believe it could reshape multiple parts of the economy.
In a recent broadcast, one technology researcher explains why this shift may bring significant productivity gains and highlights a small group of lesser-known companies he believes are positioned to benefit as the transition unfolds. Watch the broadcast here And despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a roughly $10 billion deal, the stock has only mustered a 0.23% gain since then. The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is once again looking to expand its role in the weight-loss drug market, with management and shareholders alike hoping that doing so can help recover revenue lost as demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines has waned. Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Enormous Deal With YaoPharma On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that is in early-stage development. The drug works similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). News of a yet-to-be-approved pill may not move the stock in the short term, but it does reflect Pfizer's commitment and momentum in the obesity treatment market. The agreement includes a $150 million upfront payment from Pfizer to YaoPharma's parent company, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap. Additionally, Pfizer could pay YaoPharma up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if the drug reaches certain development and regulatory milestones, along with royalty payments on sales if and when the drug is approved. Those milestone payments will be contingent on YaoPharma successfully advancing the weight-loss pill through Phase 1 trials, after which Pfizer will take control of later-stage development. Pfizer also plans to conduct combination studies—currently in mid-stage development—pairing the Chinese firm's pill with its own GIP gut-hormone receptor agent, a strategy similar to Eli Lilly's approach with Zepbound and Mounjaro, which target both GLP-1 and GIP. Pfizer Is Positioning Itself for the Future of the Weight-Loss Drug Market The deal underscores how aggressively Pfizer's executive team is pursuing a larger, long-term position in the GLP-1 and broader obesity treatment market. Pfizer's leadership has shown willingness to invest roughly $10.1 billion in recent deals as it courts a rapidly growing industry. Forecasts from market analysis firm Grand View Research suggest the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, rising from under $14 billion at the start of this year to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030. Grand View Research found that North America accounts for the largest revenue share, representing more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While alternative obesity interventions exist—such as lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery—GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option among many physicians and patients. Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend Shareholders are hoping Pfizer's push into the weight-loss market pays off, after the stock has punished loyal investors with a loss of more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline stems from falling COVID-vaccine sales, which pushed the company's revenue growth from more than 95% at the end of 2021 to a drop of more than 41% by the end of 2023. Last year, Pfizer rebounded modestly, registering nearly a 7% increase in revenue. Meanwhile, the stock's yield has offset some investors' concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65%—or $1.72 per share annually. That payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock a favorite among income investors despite its high payout ratio. For investors willing to tolerate short-term uncertainty while betting on the near- and mid-term prospects of prescription weight-loss drugs, Pfizer can provide income and a speculative play in the GLP-1 space. However, growth-focused investors may find it difficult to endure another year of lackluster performance. Analysts' average 12-month price target implies roughly 10% potential upside from the stock's current price, alongside a consensus Hold rating. Meanwhile, short interest has been steadily rising as the stock continues to attract Wall Street's bears. Currently, about $3.58 billion worth of the float is shorted—nearly 84% more than PFE's short position at the end of January 2025.
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