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For Your Education and Enjoyment Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss DrugsWritten by Jordan Chussler. Published 12/16/2025. 
Key Points - The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide about 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24% and 25%, respectively, over the same period. Elon Musk's Starlink project is generating major speculation ahead of a potential IPO that some analysts believe could reach a historic $100 billion valuation. According to James Altucher, there may be a smart "backdoor" way for everyday investors to position ahead of that event without needing traditional IPO access — and he says it can be done for under $100. He's also sharing a free ticker tied to this trend for anyone who wants to take a closer look. Click here to learn more And despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a $10 billion deal, the stock has only gained about 0.23% since then. The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is once again looking to expand its role in the weight loss drug market. Management and shareholders hope that a bigger presence in obesity treatments can help offset waning demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Deal With YaoPharma On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that is in early-stage development. The drug works similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). News of a yet-to-be-approved pill may not move the stock immediately, but it underscores Pfizer's commitment and momentum in the obesity treatment market. Under the agreement, Pfizer will pay a $150 million upfront fee to YaoPharma's parent company, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap. Pfizer could also pay up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if development and approval progress as planned, plus royalties on sales if the drug reaches the market. Those milestone payments are contingent on YaoPharma successfully navigating early trials, with Pfizer assuming responsibility for later-stage development. Pfizer also plans combination studies—currently in mid-stage development—pairing YaoPharma's pill with its own GIP gut hormone receptor, a dual-target strategy similar to Eli Lilly's approach with Zepbound and Mounjaro. Positioning for the Future of the Weight-Loss Market The deal highlights how aggressively Pfizer's executives are pursuing a long-term position in the GLP-1 and broader obesity treatment market. Over the past month, the company has committed roughly $10.1 billion toward that goal. Market forecasts from Grand View Research suggest the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from under $14 billion this year to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030. Grand View Research also found that North America accounts for the largest revenue share, more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While other obesity interventions exist—lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery among them—GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option for many physicians and patients. Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend Shareholders are hoping Pfizer's push into weight-loss drugs proves fruitful after the stock has lost more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline stems from a drop in COVID-19 vaccine sales, which pushed the company's year-over-year revenue growth from more than 95% at the end of 2021 to a decline of over 41% by the end of 2023. Last year, Pfizer rebounded modestly, registering nearly a 7% increase in revenue. Meanwhile, the stock's dividend has provided income-oriented investors some relief. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65%—$1.72 per share annually. The payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock appealing to income investors despite a 100% payout ratio that raises questions for some. For investors willing to take a longer view and speculate on the prescription weight-loss market, Pfizer can continue to provide income while offering upside if its GLP-1 efforts succeed. Growth-focused investors, however, may be less patient after another year of weak performance. Analysts' average 12-month price target implies a little more than 10% potential upside from the current price, consistent with a consensus Hold rating. Meanwhile, short interest has been rising as bears increase their positions. Currently, about $3.58 billion of PFE's float is shorted—nearly 84% more than the short position at the end of January 2025.
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