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Exclusive Story from MarketBeat.com Darden Restaurants, Inc.: This is What a Strong Signal Looks LikeBy Thomas Hughes. Published: 12/23/2025. 
Quick Look - Darden Restaurants is testing long-term trend support after a steep pullback, creating a potential trend-following entry setup.
- Recent quarterly results showed solid sales and same-restaurant sales growth, alongside continued dividends and buybacks.
- Heavy institutional ownership and net inflows suggest support if the stock confirms a breakout back above key moving averages.
Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s (NYSE: DRI) stock is flashing a potential trend-following entry in late December after a sharp 2025 pullback. The core thesis is straightforward: the long-term uptrend looks intact, momentum indicators are turning, and fundamentals, paired with institutional positioning, create a credible path to market-beating total returns in 2026 if the stock clears nearby resistance. Darden Restaurants Pulls Back to Trend-Following Entry Point in Q4 If you've built substantial wealth, capital gains taxes may quietly erode far more of your investment returns than you realize.
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Here are three high-impact areas where strategic planning may help minimize your capital gains tax. Try SmartAsset's Financial Advisor Matching Tool Weekly price action for DRI stock has been in an uptrend since 2014, interrupted only by COVID-19 volatility. The more recent activity shows a robust 2024 advance that broke price action out of an Ascending Triangle Pattern (where a stock consolidates with flat, equal highs and progressively higher lows) and set a new all-time high. That move was supported by fundamentals including growth, margin strength, and capital returns. The 2025 price action is less obviously bullish, with the stock falling about 25% from its peak to the November 2025 low. Even so, the long-term uptrend remains intact. That drawdown wasn't pleasant, but it did two useful things for trend followers: it pulled price back toward long-term support and allowed momentum gauges to unwind from extended levels. Specifically, indicators such as the MACD and stochastic reset from stretched conditions, and a key exponential moving average (EMA) began to realign with price. On the weekly chart that line is the 150-week EMA, which has tracked DRI's uptrend for years and now offers advancing support—setting the stage for the rebound that has already begun. 
The MACD and stochastic, which measure momentum and trend, clearly indicate a technical trend-following entry. The recent price rebound, accompanied by bullish crossovers in both indicators, constitutes the entry signal and suggests an uptrending market that can retest current highs and potentially move higher in 2026. Investors should note, however, that late-December action hit a short-term ceiling that will need to be surpassed for a sustained rally. The Next Hurdle: Reclaiming the 150-Day EMA to Confirm Accumulation Even with improving momentum, the chart still has an obvious test ahead on the daily timeframe: reclaiming the 150-day EMA. Many investors treat the 150-day line as a proxy for intermediate-term accumulation—when price is below it, rallies can stall; when price climbs back above and holds, it often signals that dip buyers are returning. In summary, the weekly 150-week EMA provides long-term support, while the daily 150-day EMA serves as the intermediate confirmation line. A clean push above the 150-day EMA on the daily chart—followed by a successful retest—would add confirmation for traders who want more than just an initial bounce. Earnings Catalyst: What Darden Just Reported and Why It Matters The earnings results for fiscal Q2 (FQ2) showed year-over-year growth accelerating to over 7%, outperformance versus expectations, and substantial margin expansion driven by core business strength and comp-store sales. Cash flow and capital returns were healthy as well, including the 3.1% yielding dividend and continued share buybacks. Buybacks have reduced the share count by roughly 1.2% in the first fiscal half and are expected to remain meaningful in the second half. While restaurant results helped drive recent price action, analysts and institutions are the market movers. The FQ2 release prompted several price-target increases and upgrades, supporting the Moderate Buy rating and a roughly 20% upside projection. Institutional owners now hold more than 90% of the stock, and 2025 activity shows they bought about $2 for every $1 sold. With that dynamic in place, DRI's downside appears limited and its upside potential compelling.
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