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Further Reading from MarketBeat Can Upwork Maintain Its Comeback? Reasons to Be Bullish and BearishReported by Dan Schmidt. Published: 12/17/2025. 
At a Glance - Upwork was a popular meme stock in 2021, but the company hasn't come close to matching those highs in the 4 years since.
- Despite its negative reputation, Upwork has become a profitable enterprise that's embraced AI for more complex jobs.
- While fundamental and technical tailwinds are in place, a few factors are still weighing on the stock that investors should be aware of as they enter 2026.
Traders may fondly remember the meme-stock era of 2021, but the companies involved have had mixed results. Most — if not all — have never come close to their 2021 highs and now sit in the market's dustbin. One of those former high-flyers is Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ: UPWK), the online gig marketplace that went public in 2018. Upwork looked headed for penny-stock status before COVID-19, then shares soared from $6 to $58 over 18 months. Why Is Nobody Talking About What Just Happened at Mar-a-Lago?
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Revenue Growth Turning Profitable Growing top-line sales is one thing; eventually that growth needs to translate into profits, especially after seven years as a public company. Upwork has begun converting sales into profits and is showing improvement across several metrics. It has been beating top- and bottom-line expectations, margins reached a record 29.6%, and the all-important Gross Services Volume (GSV) returned to growth in Q3 2025, rising 2% year-over-year (YOY). During the Q3 conference call, Upwork raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance and highlighted its AI advances, which leads to the next point. -
Successfully Mitigating AI Headwinds Many analysts expected generative AI to pose an existential threat to freelance marketplaces like Upwork, since many tasks are one-off gigs companies could theoretically replace with ChatGPT or Gemini. Instead of losing clients, Upwork has embraced AI for hybrid workflows. Companies can now combine human freelancers with specialized AI agents for complex projects, and AI-driven GSV has grown more than 50% YOY. The company also introduced UMA, its "work companion," to help freelancers and clients connect more efficiently. -
Technical Trends Point to More Upside Strong fundamentals can take time to show up in a stock's price unless technical tailwinds are in place. Upwork now combines record sales, expanding margins, and encouraging technical indicators. The stock initially sent mixed signals when the price dipped despite a Golden Cross forming on the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). 
The Golden Cross wasn't wrong so much as early: the 50-day SMA wobbled but ultimately held as support, and the stock quickly reclaimed the 2025 high it notched in September. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated but still below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting there could be more upside to come. 2 Reasons to be Bearish on UPWK in 2026 Putting 2025's rally aside, investors are focused on what will happen in 2026. If you're considering a position in UPWK, watch these two risks closely. -
Shrinking Gig Volume Is a Red Flag AI has helped overall revenue growth, but it has also introduced cracks. While GSV is rising, smaller jobs (roughly $300 or less) are evaporating as companies increasingly turn to generative AI to avoid onboarding costs and short-term hires. If Upwork cedes these smaller gigs to AI solutions or competitors like Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE: FVRR), the marketplace could see GSV shrink again—even if higher-value projects remain available. -
Broader Labor Market Weakness At the moment the macro picture looks stable: the Federal Reserve trimmed rates again this month, and lower rates often benefit small-cap stocks that generate cash flow and trade at reasonable valuations. But the labor market is the canary in Upwork's coal mine, and the company's Enterprise segment (which serves large professional clients) has already shown signs of weakness this year. Additionally, the company's new Lifted platform for Enterprise clients is expected to require substantial integration work, which could reduce margins by about two percentage points in 2026. Margin stagnation combined with a slower jobs market, or a recession, could reverse Upwork's recent profit gains and put significant pressure on the stock.
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