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For Your Education and Enjoyment The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and affected results for major retailers have created a favorable buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, enabling the company to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers. Gold pushed past $4,200, but our expert Sean Brodrick says the real opportunity could lie in a handful of stocks that may soar far beyond gold.
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This weekend only, you can get all five names for just $19. Access Sean's five gold stock picks and your limited-time savings here! The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and improved Q4 guidance — likely conservative — suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies reported a strong quarter, with revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, across-the-board division strength, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% rise at HomeGoods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments reported positive net growth, which also helped margin expansion. Margin performance was strong: better selling conditions and revenue leverage delivered a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, supported by operating efficiencies that produced leveraged earnings gains. GAAP diluted EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations. Nonetheless, the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not diminish the strong year-to-date performance. The company raised full-year guidance, now expecting comparable-store growth of about 4% and earnings at the low end of the range near $4.63 — more than a nickel above consensus estimates. Given recent trends, management's guidance appears conservative, and the company may again outperform when it reports Q4 results in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, reducing its share count materially each year. The dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500 average; it is secure and the payout has been growing. With a payout ratio below 40%, annual dividend increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the brief COVID‑19 pause, the company has increased its distribution for nearly 30 years and appears capable of sustaining double-digit compound annual growth in the dividend for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags for investors and offers further incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights included increases in current and total assets — driven by cash and inventory — offset by modest liability growth and lower debt. The result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholder equity and persistently low leverage; the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt at roughly 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analyst trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook: expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, a Buy consensus from 25 analysts, and rising price targets. Consensus now treats the stock as fairly valued following the Q3 release, but the trend targets the high end of the range near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid‑November levels.
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